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Barclays director of commodity research Helima Croft weighs in on Iranian nuclear talks.
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Welcome back every -- nuclear talks with Iran continuing today and Baghdad but there are some mixed signals on whether further talks will take place.
You can look at what oil is doing today -- up about a buck thirty a barrel with more on this let's bring in -- across one of our favorite guest director of commodity research.
At Barclays what to make -- well.
Look at the move in oil can you treated to anything to do with Iran today absolutely their expectations for big breakthrough this week you had had of the IAEA didn't you a nickel watchdog agency.
He went to their Ron for the first time in two years and he said a deal is looming.
And then they -- expectation to get some big breakthrough in Baghdad and it looks like talks have stalled over the issue of sanctions the Iranians are essentially saying look.
We're not gonna freeze enrichment we're not gonna ship our stockpiles if you don't put the issue of sanctions on the table Phillies are doing is I guess.
Most firmly behind the sanctions in terms of the western nations what the Israelis -- -- -- the sanctions.
Followed by the United States there had been some question mark over France because when Sarkozy was president he was very hawkish on Iran.
More hawkish than Obama and there were some sense with the new French president you might see some softening of European resolved.
It doesn't -- to be the case right now.
It seems like the EU oil embargo and the erotic and I think are saying look.
We're not gonna come to the table and lets -- get something in return.
In the EU -- oil embargo of kicks in July and run decision matter of weeks this is a huge -- -- behind such a big deal for the markets it's basically taking additional 500000 barrels -- morning trade off the market would you think that that is factor in the price of -- because you've seen it come down so much -- -- -- but even below ninety dollars a barrel I think the expectation if the Iranians.
Came to the -- -- Baghdad.
The essentially see the lifting of the EU oil embargo or -- delay.
And that does not seem likely I can get my friend my gosh is there some new -- Iran Iran -- have to think about.
Also it talks fail or stop the military option is back front and center well how does our election here play into how.
President Obama sticks with the push for sanctions and -- his will could we have to factor that in -- at what point.
Does the military option come back just in our out there -- back and forth here between two candidates he's a rock and a hard place I think on this issue because on the one hand he needs to prove that he's tough on Iran.
But when he's tough on Iran -- potentially to higher oil prices because people think there's no deal what's gonna be on the table one the military option is still in play.
But -- you get a deal you potentially -- softening and -- prices.
But you look like your potentially weak on Iran to there's not an easy scenario for a bomb under the how to navigate the situation that really quickly fair price for oil right now what do you think it is we know we still have -- -- forecast.
For one F five for WTI and want funny from Brent.
We still think that the market you know -- the saudis have really ramp up production but the issue is really still a situation -- have another country having problems.
There's not a lot of Christian -- All right Alina great to see you as always selling across a travel thank you -- -- all of the glow.
