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Housing Recovery in Sight?

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  • Description

    Chandon Economics president Sam Chandon weighs in on the state of the housing market.

  • Duration 3:52
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I'm -- more feel for the housing recovery existing home sales up 3.4.

Percent in April and up 10%.

From last year what do you make of these numbers in tandem president -- an economics -- -- now it has take.

This looks pretty good on the outset and you're not so -- -- -- any improvement in the housing numbers is certainly welcome but taken in context I think we have to.

A fairly reserved assessment of these numbers it comes after a few months of declines so.

-- the first improvement we've had since January and improvement really just puts us back to the volume numbers.

That we have the beginning of the year and -- and that we need to be fairly reserved about is that we have fairly strong job numbers in January and February January private sector numbers.

We're the strongest in six years and so it's no surprise that.

With the job market strengthening we with a bit of a lag see some improvement in housing sales.

But if the data on the labor markets.

In the next couple months continues to look like the data we've seen from march and April and that underlying driver of household income of the ability to purchase a home.

Begins to about.

-- yes I see your point about the jobs number but within the report that came out this morning from and they -- single family homes up 3% I mean you're single family homes.

-- the trend is -- multi finally homes apartment buildings apartment when you're right.

-- today now.

Well I think you know the -- the improvement is meaningful and the new year over year were up about 10%.

On he.

Absolute basis it's still a lot lower than the trend levels where we'd like to be in that can really lead to sustained gains the other -- I think we should keep in mind here is that as compared to a year ago.

Residential mortgage rates for a lot lower there are they were three point 1% on a picture amid -- -- -- fabric well Brent prices are up a little bit from a couple of months ago and the mortgage rate is down.

-- my concern here is that with a three point 91%.

Thirty year fixed commitment rate with.

Mortgage financing being historically.

Affordable.

We should be doing a lot better than we're doing right now.

ET AIG can open up this morning and they they mentioned a month's supply of homes that rose a little bit suggests six months about a month and they said it's a little bit of a -- -- -- so they believe.

That the housing market bottomed.

At the end of 2010.

You make -- well I think.

Yeah there are a lot of reasons to you want to two chief of positive freed of the date up -- and we do know that for example in 2009 and early 2010.

We actually not have much higher numbers.

In terms of the volume of sales than what we have today.

We've got to be I think concerned about the potential for some false starts but 'cause.

-- those economic numbers those job numbers tied back to the housing market then again I won't.

Go so far is to save that conditions are weakening.

But I think we've got to be very careful about how how has caused -- -- in India.

Seems though if you look at all the things that have been happening in housing over the last three years and it's been a bloodbath even when you see cash investors coming -- buying out also homes.

Holding on those for two and three years mortgage rates the jobs ever getting a little bit -- unemployment getting a little bit better you -- -- you would think.

That that would tip us the other direction that the bottom wasn't the end of 2010 at least a good bit of the beginning of 2000 small mid and early ninety S remember the early ninety's -- -- -- the -- -- the didn't the cash investors are an important component of -- -- bit of 12830%.

Of the overall buyer pool.

That's important in driving -- volume numbers up.

We're but again I wanna take -- a fairly reserved view of this is that it doesn't necessarily reflect underlying demand.

For the housing market to stabilize in the long run when your job creation we need.

Families moving into those homes and home buyers.

That are -- seeking to acquire houses as investments but don't necessarily represent.

People actually moving into the homes they still need that that underlying mark.

To -- room they were moving into the homes and letting them that but and I'll go back and rewritten the and I can't -- thanks for coming I'm gonna have very much action economics --

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