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S&P Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall and Zacks.com Senior Equities Strategist Jared Levy on the outlook for the markets and economy.
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All right -- bring in Sam Stovall chief investment strategist set SMP is Sam when UN women's back on April 6 he said.
-- we're gonna see pullback in the coming weeks well so far -- down more than 3% so clearly my next question is what's ahead now.
Well actually I think there could be a little more to -- But I -- believe that history indicates but does not guarantee obviously.
That we probably could see this decline contained to a pullback meaning a decline of five to 10%.
Rather than becoming something more severe.
And mainly it's because of the amount of time that it took us to finally break below that 5% level it took us 42 calendar days.
And only 18% of all declines an excess -- 5%.
Took that long to occur.
Law and none of them morphed into bear markets are we do sound for a rally -- does this feel like a market that's oversold.
I think certainly is the prior -- said we could see.
A short term rally I believe that the dollar has been overbought and is at extremes to the upside.
That could end up making investors feel a little bit better about the US dollar quite could have clarified that the US dollar vs the Euro the yen you tell me -- which part of it.
The year US dollar index as compared with a basket of major country house -- compared around the globe.
So if the US dollar comes down we could see some of the commodities.
Come back -- -- they a sigh of relief if you will.
And then overall I think possibly we could see you.
The US equity market then rally but the real question is.
We've been looking at lower highs and lower lows so we probably will bottom out between the thirteen twenty.
And maybe 1280.
Area in the S&P again -- in that.
Five to 10% decline zone.
Jeremy let me go back to -- Look the market's expectation for QE3 I read is growing.
But yet the economic data does not suggest that we gonna need QE3 what are your thoughts.
There's the crop so.
To to get QE3.
I have anything major global catastrophe -- we need to see consistent weakness in the numbers Britain's PMI I you know coming in -- -- in -- low fifties.
Unemployed -- -- employment rates getting at a at a rate of 100 -- 220000.
Really really does Obama so we're not seeing that it's a good game we're playing right now what the Fed is gonna wanna do.
Is really play this part carefully not his own today any FOMC minutes a lot of them we're looking towards perhaps future quantitative easing but the -- -- If we're not seeing weakness here they're not gonna do it because it's -- last you know arrow in the quiver.
So for now it's it's what's happening in Europe house China doing and what are corporate profits -- -- right now there are some pockets.
-- strengthen corporate profits were still -- about there could just -- bargain between.
And Sam companies are still paying dividends you've two picks in the ETF world and one of them is called.
The aristocrats the S&P dividend aristocrats the ticker symbol SDY.
And then you got SP LV which is the low volatility what low volatile haven't seen a lot of volatility here.
Well that your bringing up good points that basically the question is do -- wanna be fully in cash.
Meaning to -- wanna go selling may and go entirely away or do I want to stick with stocks but at least bring down my overall risk exposure.
The S&P dividend aristocrats are those companies.
That have increased their cash -- to investors in each of the last 25 year so incredibly high quality companies.
The SMP low volatility index.
Are those 100 stocks in the S&P that have the lowest.
Trailing twelve months wiggle or standard deviation so you get solid companies good dividend yields but low volatility.
Great to see both sandstone vol with the chief investment strategist at S&P and geragos he had a few minutes -- the S&P futures close thank.
You.
