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Sterne Agee & Leach senior research analyst Arvind Bhatia explains why he expects Facebook stock to outperform.
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Hi thanks very much -- called FaceBook CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
Turns 28 years old today and stern -- is getting a birthday gift initiating coverage of FaceBook without -- Marvin body of stern -- says he expects the stock to outperform the next twelve months and he joins me now.
To tell us why so -- about card thanks for being what is you've got.
You've got a 46 dollars target price if FaceBook goes public that first day in hits it big when you gonna -- Well actually -- a two year price are gonna -- 59 dollars apple both present problem when we -- -- -- to that but I think the bottom line here is.
This is a multi year story.
Of course are gonna have a lot of volatility in the beginning -- -- have a stock guy probably pop for the first day.
And then as that -- weren't there at their first step few quarters after going public.
The stock -- react to near term news but this is not about the next couple of quarters for us this is a multiyear growth story.
Public company that's disrupting.
A large markets yes so currently we see a lot of opportunity in the long run.
Right so now the online advertising market globally 68 billion dollars or so get the company goes public likely with a valuation of a hundred billion.
The -- get a lot more than -- online ads aren't that.
But they also you have a -- do they have payments.
Market as well where people like -- Zynga.
They have about 30% off revenue think you know I think apple.
For example but the advertising market online is growing you know quite rapidly it's going to be a 120 billion dollar market in about five years.
But I look at this is a broader market not just the on line.
There is a fundamental shift that's going on from offline.
To online advertising right -- -- as a 600 billion dollar opportunity.
And again we we're also looking at China but -- also looking at the changes going on within the -- you know going from PC to mobile.
And these guys we'll continue to monetize we think more and more every year I've given their reach given their.
Engaged user audience about that mobile stuff -- they have four and 88 million monthly mobile users something like eighty million only mobile.
And they recently warned they could do that IPO -- with the G network growing mobile users a lot faster than we're growing ad sales to them do you worry about that -- -- Right I think it got spin out of control alluded to in terms of -- spot has a negative.
What they're trying to say the -- be -- at least is they're trying to say.
Tell the world don't take our DAU growth.
To mean that's gonna be exactly correlated to our near term advertising growth in other words mobile.
-- growth -- user bases is huge but the monetization we'll take some time they even talk about that in the video.
So -- -- -- it was caution you not to take the percentage growth got to mean advertising revenue growth which doesn't mean that things are slowing down it just means.
And let's be careful about your calculations -- new models.
I think mobile is a huge opportunity is going to be challenging in the near term but give -- a year or two and phase of his affair of the south all right nice job thank you very much -- body up.
