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Will Oil’s Downward Trend Continue?

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  • Description

    CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam on the outlook for oil prices and the economy.

  • Duration 3:39
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This transcript is automatically generated

And act -- Carlyle.

Over the last five sessions 5% drop nearly 10% saves depends on the CME might Genpact.

Hey -- yes my special guest is mr.

blue Putnam -- the new chief economist of the CME group -- -- so nice to have you on fox business for the first time it's great to be here.

Eight so let's get right to that we're looking at oil today you obviously -- job is to look at emerging trends in the marketplace right now -- down by street these right now.

-- this the trend or is something going to be changing soon.

This is the trend -- -- the only reason why analysts that the issue was the Iran nuclear tensions that's gonna layers subsided.

Now we've got China slowed down Brazil slowed down -- it's not growing demand slowing oil prices are gonna you know give a little back.

And how how far do you think that they could fall before they start to find support.

They can -- -- further it's it's gonna be a meaningful drop.

Before they find support.

All right now let's talk -- Ben Bernanke the Fed Chairman it's gonna be speaking in Chicago this Thursday -- the markets whenever it's been -- on -- they're still on pins and needles about the Fed's next move.

What's your best guess for the Fed's next -- I think they.

I would like to move before they've said they've given guidance for 2014 but the Fed gives guidance they don't make commitments.

And at the facts change they'll change but 2013 is when I see it happening nearly as the -- for real and they know that.

And and the other thing is about the actual recovery there's a lot of skepticism about are we really in a recovery housing still struggling -- still struggling.

-- best that as an economist is this real recovery this is.

Is absolutely a real recovery we've got a 3% plus economy on our hands surely -- a little slowdown in jobs that we had that the last couple years is slowdown is not as much as the floor.

We have things are really going fine.

And -- I think they'll let the other thing -- people are really concerned about is all the sudden the volatilities back in this marketplace I've been talking to traders got your urges -- said.

Volatility is back -- we get a more than a hundred point swing in the Dow for the first couple months this year.

What's happened now especially with this that what's what's happening over in Europe.

Get used to it.

Europe is gonna stay volatile oil's gonna stay volatile we're gonna worry more about what the Fed does next fiscal policy in the US in tweet their -- is a -- Volatilities back.

And as far as the consumers' -- there's a nervousness about the way they're going to be going going into the last happened this year.

Is -- consumer gonna come back are we gonna see spending comeback small businesses.

You're talking in the past -- consumers already back spending is already active already borrowing more.

Confidence is -- the economies -- my dark as some might argue that with more than 8% unemployment -- up.

You gotta start from where you while we -- only a year ago nine -- we're going to seven and a half by the end of the year on unemployment and how do you think the markets are gonna respond to assume you're talking to us on a triple digit down day for the Dow.

Yes thank you Europe but death.

The markets -- gonna like the growth in the US but they're not gonna like the slowdown in the rest of the world.

And and -- I wanna leave on this because obviously Europe's the number one concern for traders down here on the floor right now you just wrote what is considered pretty controversial note -- Europe.

In a few words.

What's next for Europe dropped.

My.

-- decrease carrots C me we may have a new currency in the Europe by a 2014.

Of that for our forecast -- Tracy.

-- -- Hey guys this is blue -- number and -- he is the new chief economist is -- Europe.

I got to tell you -- that these notes there on seem eager dot com they're very well read in the trading investing community -- economically thank you so much thank you.

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