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Disappointing Jobs Report a Result of Weather?

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  • Description

    IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh reacts to the unemployment numbers.

  • Duration 2:50
  • Date

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Jobs report 150000.

Is not a great number -- -- -- vicious with his chief economist -- IHS to break it down safe.

What we can learn from that -- record and it's very hard to find a positive and that's may be look at the past revisions but overall pretty poor -- You're actually right very disappointing number but you put your finger on one of the to -- -- positives if you look.

The -- if you will that are there one is the revisions 53000 over the last couple months which is February and march.

The other is this could be a bit of -- pay back.

From the warm weather we had earlier in the year employment went out quite strongly in those months when the weather was very warm in the winner.

But this could be payback in the sense that has come back down again that would argue is this.

That our views as understates the the growth in and the jobs market will probably close and at 150.

In terms of the underlying.

Rate of job growth.

Still not great though I -- -- to this point it right in the cycle and it looks a little bit about if we -- Kind of how people are dealing with this for the psyche that we can pull out of the numbers the American worker and -- -- -- -- -- people -- given -- essentially mean look at the participation rate.

As -- lowest since 1981 I believe so instead of going out there looking for work and try to bounce back mean people are essentially.

Saying you know lots forget it I'm just gonna give up a -- so that's a horrible -- and.

-- you're absolutely right and in fact.

You know the fact that the unemployment rate went down is not good news in the sense that it's.

For a bad reason precisely because the way you're -- People are giving up labor force is down.

Participation rate as you're saying is down that's why the unemployment it's going that.

Fewer people looking for jobs that's not a good thanks so how it's a very troubling sign how does that turn around -- yeah.

The the people about two point seven million almost three million gave up looking for work over the last year and less than a million join the workforce of just people.

You -- if you know nothing else about the number be just think about that today and that's that's say a big difference -- that number.

And that's when does that change when people sit themselves alright things are getting better or what leads to witness say -- -- get back in the game.

Well I think the big difference is going to be when job growth itself the other -- that side of the equation if you will that.

The jobs creation aspect is much stronger than -- we have to be up around.

200000 a month.

To get that site psychological impact of change from a negative to positive -- we got there then what will that happen.

Well then again a good question I think everybody's very cautious.

Businesses are extremely cautious they worry about while prices that worried about Europe.

I think you you've got this super caution on the part of businesses that got the money to hire but they're very reluctant to hire in a big way that I think and a small way but not a big way are there have been -- always said great talking to get your analysis thanks for coming out of -- --

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