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What to Expect from the Unemployment Numbers

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    Russell Investments chief economist Mike Dueker gives his outlook for unemployment.

  • Duration 3:39
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And thank you and that's.

Well we could see our weekly jobless claims fall to their lowest level in a month but the big government job numbers -- come out tomorrow so the question is what can we expect joining us now Mike -- -- chief.

Economists full Russell investments might -- Who just don't know Charles -- in a previous segment employers expected to -- maybe a 170000.

New jobs to the payrolls last month.

But now the whisper numbers are a lot lower than that what are you expecting.

That's what I would expect the never to be lower than last week's consensus forecast a 170000.

If we get a 140000.

-- the is not -- change.

The if that they'd -- -- that much from what it would be it even if we get a 170000 so the important point I think is that.

Whether we get a 140 -- they get 170 -- the outlook has been downgraded in the past month I think the big driver of that downgrade from our point of view.

Has been this collapse again in the ten year treasury yield.

If you look at in the second half of march the ten year treasury yield was between 2.3 nine in about two and a quarter.

That -- that suggest that healthier growth expectations and and a better economic outlook.

That that collapse of that ten years revealed this months down to a current rate of one point 93 -- that is a high is a harbinger of very low growth going forward.

So we've downgraded our expectations we now think.

That we've probably not gonna get back up to a steady diet of about a 180000 dollars a month and tell 2013.

And of course 2013 the real wild -- because of the fiscal cliff we're facing and how that's resolved is -- completely right here at this point.

See my this is what makes it's so confusing because we have we have good manufacturing numbers come out on Tuesday I.

It nonsense.

Service numbers come out today not so good durable goods not so good right jobless claims come -- now I mean that we revival these numbers.

How -- -- supposed to predict.

Going forward because didn't that it is so confusing.

-- a better shock -- but I think overall big picture would be that.

We're expecting sort of a mini stumble here in the second quarter this year is not gonna be as big as the second quarter symbols we -- in either 2010 or 2011.

Hopefully this -- -- won't be large enough to create any.

Concerns about a double dip there was in both 2010 and 2011.

But again this is a slight downgrade to the growth -- who saw earlier earlier look like we'll be having service they -- between -- -- -- into -- a thousand dollars a month.

Now the current -- -- you actually have.

Business and take -- Intel the end of the year and until we finally get back up above the -- -- threshold for steady gains in in payroll employment of a 180000 per month.

Do you think mixed.

Ended period -- of low interest rates is really -- job creation in this country some rule out they'll tell you that.

That yes -- provided the liquidity and it's great for the banks in the borrowers but overall it's not doing anything for the the growth of the economy.

Well I I would this agree with the policy of keeping on hold for the federal funds rate until two -- fourteen.

As long as the Fed is willing to keep his balance sheet up.

That's gonna keep bank lending in at a higher level -- and avoid expectations of deflation that's really what Ben Bernanke wants to avoid.

We'll be expectations of deflation.

Expectations of economic collapse but unfortunately what's happened in the past month with the ten year treasury yield plummeting down to one point 93 can -- that means that these expectations and we have gotten worse in terms of what will phenomenal growth -- -- real growth being.

Knowing that that -- helpful but in -- Federal Reserve's gonna have to keep that in order to keep these growth expectations up.

An acute -- -- -- sales off the table and investors' minds we're out of time already might do occur Russell investments might thank you very much for joining us thanks Mike.

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