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Bright Spots in Retail?

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  • Description

    Morningstar equity analyst Paul Swinand weighs in on retail sales.

  • Duration 3:10
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Industry are right -- thank you very much -- you've been holding on to your cast a little more tightly over the past month.

You are not alone is causing some of the nation's biggest retailers to feel the pinch Paulson and and is an equity.

Morningstar he is here now on.

Look there is a bright -- don't want to sort out if if we -- with Nordstrom's because -- -- -- that we don't West Coast named a throughout the country.

They actually just saw a decent amount of traffic and the stock is actually been doing a little bit better over the last three months what -- say about Nordstrom.

Well I think the important thing to know about Nordstrom in the April sales results that's because they turned their inventories so fast.

They benefited disproportionately from be better weather in March because they had fresh inventory right away on the floor.

And they didn't have as many markdowns coming out -- the warm winter so they were better prepared in April they didn't have as much of a whole -- in March.

And then they also benefited from again -- fresh inventory in April.

OK I don't -- a lot of retailers that we're concern analysts like -- soft concerned about the fact that we had that big Easter holiday wish it did earlier about but some of the spending in the march.

And then you got Mother's Day later fair enough but if you combined march and April which a lot of the big name guys did today.

This week what they're saying is -- things are fine if you combined march and April together from an analyst perspective is that.

Hold water with you.

Get -- combined march and April were pretty.

They they were pretty in line with expectations that mean you know like Macy's people are saying no they miss they didn't want to and that is expected with -- -- I mean.

With the would double weather whammy -- -- April and warm march pulling sales forward.

And then the -- the Easter and the Mother's Day shift.

To me that's too close to call -- -- I mean -- people make these projections ahead of time and then.

You know it's all the best plan that's it's not that precise either from the outside where the company's projections -- -- -- so.

I don't see I'm not taking as big a negative as some of the some of the analysts -- some of the people -- regard this morning.

I think companies like Macy's are still seeing some positive same store sales momentum and I think that if you have a good may you'll see a pick up again I crack.

-- gas prices.

Kohl's.

Target some of the -- -- tier names they could actually benefit.

Upfront lower gas prices correct.

Yes and I think it's not just gas presence but all the commodity prices and I notice you're just talking about Sara Lee.

Don't forget calls for example has.

A lot more.

Cotton and more commodity apparel on the floor the percent of the total.

They raise the price of the lot more in 2007.

2011.

Now -- lowered them in 2012 so imagine if you lower your prices 5% in the first quarter.

That's -- 5% comp store headwind right off the bat.

So actually I see this is starting to turn around even though for example polls had a negative 35 comp in April I actually think things are gonna start get better from here.

You're right up a lot of not sure a lot of our viewers are helping -- from a -- perspective that your right pulse financial Morningstar Paul thank hip.

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