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Are Inflation, Jobs A Concern for Retailers?

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    Macquarie Capital Senior Analyst Liz Dunn on the outlook for retail sales.

  • Duration 4:48
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Spending slowing in March but we've got an analyst -- still expects to see retail sales rise yes she's got the wind resolute desire loses that is you need to know before same -- sales come out this Thursday immediate jumpstart joining us now is -- -- senior analyst at Macquarie capital is thank you so much for joining us so what we -- consumer spending.

Slowing down just a little bit of -- shot will that impact the April numbers do you think when they come out on those things.

Well.

I think we'll be looking at that.

More recent data so we're going to be looking at April retail sales from the retailers they already reported for the most part mart sales.

And I think we'll see -- further slowdown from the trend we saw in March however there a couple of factors there that.

That may be should be considered the weather was so warm in February and march -- -- get pulled forward some sales.

And also the timing of Easter which also pulled -- -- forward sales into march so I think we'll see a further slowdown in April but nothing to be concerned about still positive growth.

I think there's still more opportunity for earnings upside for most of my companies -- are still opportune.

Idea for inflation to hit hit our world I mean that people are calling for that because the Fed of course has.

Put a lot of liquidity into the markets and then there's of course the unemployment rate.

We'll get more clarity on that on Friday when we get the Labor Department's numbers for the month of April but.

Nonetheless are those real roadblocks that you see for the consumer hat.

I think jobs is the number one factor that's the number one thing I'm watching.

We seen this consumer rebound in discretionary spending over the last two years.

But that really has much to do is just improving consumer confidence the thing I think we need now is jobs.

Inflation is certainly out a worry we haven't seen it inferred even in the most part yet but it's certainly something I'm watching.

For the future it it does feel like there's a lot of liquidity out there and that's that's a valid concern for the future all right let's.

Or because specifics -- -- picked two winners to losers for the month of April what do you to -- a close up that.

At Macy's is is by far I think that the top performer.

In the month of April that's that's my pick I'm expecting just a 1% comp but nonetheless I do think this is the company and my coverage that has the most opportunity to raise.

Earnings estimates on Thursday.

And so that's that's my favorite.

I haven't been recommending Nordstrom highlight that went to -- from the standpoint of sales I think they'll turn and strong sales on Thursday they've had a very robust trend.

You know ascent the jobs data that we've been looking for you know it's really about share -- and I think Macy's and Nordstrom are picking up share companies I'm somewhat more cautious on.

-- neutral on both these companies but -- and Sachs.

I think are going to put up slightly disappointing trends -- has really been struggling with stimulating its business you know their consumers feeling.

A little bit more -- than others -- but also you know that moderate department -- sector just seems a little weak.

So -- and I'm a little cautious on.

Saks Saks is a little bit more interesting because it is a high end but they're exposed to New York they're exposed to weak Wall Street bonuses and the march numbers frankly weren't that great.

-- 20% of the sales you make the point of tied to Fifth Avenue which would be the Wall Street crowd list.

Still looking at those two names that you like in an advance of earnings were -- flag and our viewers that you believe that they may get a bump from that Nordstrom's or Macy's.

I I -- the question becomes other names that are out there I don't know if you cover them but lately the gap has gotten a lot of attention they've finally gotten their groove back in a way they're trying to redo a lot of the stores invigorate them right come up.

Plus -- the deal -- Diane von Furstenberg.

What are the best retail stores.

The best ideas that retail stores have and if people are looking ahead and try to find picks in those -- what are the characteristics -- should be looking for.

Don't live last time I was on you asked me about gap to I still don't cover it but I do think that there experiencing -- a strong trend and -- that -- what retailers are really benefiting right now front is -- And I think gap in some other retailers have done a little bit better job with caller this -- and I think that's that's a smaller -- something that you can't really expected necessarily carry you throughout the rest of the year.

But I think that accessories does remain a very very strong trend -- one that I think -- be.

Multi year in nature.

I like fossil watch company -- Coach handbag company.

Out of those accessories are really continuing to be extremely hot.

So I do like those I also just in generally companies that really have a a well thought out strategy for how to manage these brands.

And I think coaches is my number one pick in terms of companies that manage their brand for the long term -- see them at the at the beginning of product cycle I think things are gonna get much better for them going forward.

Liz Dunn thank you so much for joining us and we should remind everybody those numbers come out Thursday you're hearing it here first well in advance.

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