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Choppiness Ahead for the Markets?

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  • Description

    Mike Ryan of UBS Wealth Management gives his outlook for the markets.

  • Duration 3:18
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This transcript is automatically generated

Thank you very much -- Harris -- now we appreciate it.

Still some markets well our next guest says that he expects topping his head -- Little minds and good night out there you know where to look joining us now Mike Ryan chief investment strategist for UBS wealth management.

It might here's the big question a lot of big banks -- including UBS started the year -- really cautious and tentative.

Defensive almost and if that -- the case well lot people miss this run if they sat on the sidelines in heeded those calls so what happened.

What -- the lawyer I think we saw on the beginning of the year was a probably an underestimated just how big an impact European central banks moved in terms of the LT -- have in the market.

So I think it's certainly pushed markets higher it's certainly give us -- relief.

We also saw better than expected economic data which certainly gave us a boost as well I think we have to focus on for the rest of the year Tracy is -- recognition the following.

The economy has gotten better but we're still in this growth channel about 23%.

Earnings growth is still expanding but -- more moderate pace and valuations are reasonable.

So it's a market where don't expect to -- sort of -- we saw in the first three months of the year but we're not gonna see a replay of kind of the last two years when markets came under significant pressure in the spring and summer.

So you're saying basically the bar's going to be set a -- more realistically come earning season because it was so well last quarter as Liz MacDonald says the Caterpillar could jump right over it.

I think there's there's -- -- tale of two stories with regard to what we're -- in terms of corporate profits I think the bar was an incredibly low in the first quarter effect he's seen.

Over three quarters of companies that beat estimates where we're talking about beating by over 6% when you exclude apple.

You talking about you know even revenue growth.

I think the bar is set much higher in the second half the affect the fourth quarter so here's what I see I see earnings growth is gonna continue through the balance this year.

But some of those estimates especially the fourth quarter now gonna have to come down fourth -- that -- be post election to lock it happened that let's go back -- eurozone.

Are you putting any money that all even on the debt side.

We're not right now look -- I think the I think the Europe markets are cheap.

But I don't think they're expensive because I still think there's lots that's gonna fall out with regard to.

But this current situation with Spain I don't think we've yet come to a resolution of what how willing they're going to be to fund some of these to both the stabilization -- And let's face it we also election coming up.

Whereas on the French election is gonna have a large impact on how closely Germany and France -- work going forward.

Haven't the emerging markets because I know there's got to be opportunities -- you find there.

Yeah I do like emerging markets alike for a couple of reasons first of all valuation in these markets despite the growth prospects they have they're not very expensive and that the trading at a discount.

I think the second thing as a while people focus on these very very high margins we see in the US.

The margins are actually low -- in in emerging markets and -- rented to expand.

So when you throw on top of that the fact that.

The earnings outlook is probably.

-- more reachable attainable in emerging markets and the growth prospects appear I think this paints a pretty good picture for the emerging markets for the balance issue into next year.

I have -- ten seconds but at the beginning of the year -- -- not worried about it Chinese hard landing and now it seems that you are quickly what changed.

Not so we're not.

Worry about a a hard -- fact just the opposite we think this is going to be a soft landing where.

There was a little bit shaken Chile part of the year we're seeing signs now that that the Chinese markets stabilize and we expect to see better growth for the balance of the year.

My -- good stuff a lot of information man -- -- UBS thank you said Baxter's he.

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