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FBN’s Peter Barnes on the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the economy and potential policy changes.
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Let's go right to the guy who got to ask Ben Bernanke a question -- Peter Barnes at the Federal Reserve.
We're chairman Ben Bernanke just wrapped up his news conference you know the -- -- Peter he started to say something -- and we were all think we're amenable -- and it started with the fact that he said I.
I would like to advance the hypothesis that employment increases we saw in the last six months.
We're actually greater than we might have expected it and -- he trailed off into something that that seemed a little bit contradictory saying that now from the future will see fewer.
Employment increases.
-- -- he goes and he's hedging here you know as as he always does and he was talking about the fact that that.
You know that that that employment fell off such a big cliff.
Back during the financial crisis and the recession that some of the employment gains we've been seeing particularly in the last six months are kind of catch up.
For -- for the for the huge drop off before but he said.
That since the economy may have caught up -- that.
With that job creation we might not see the kind of growth that we saw.
And earlier in the year of you know 20500000.
Jobs a month and indeed in March.
We saw that drop to a hundred and -- 40000 about half of what was expected.
And so I think it was trying to manage expectations a little bit here -- made it very clear though that unemployment.
Remains.
Probably the key metric for how the Fed goes forward with policy and he said there at the end that you know we're -- -- be watching -- closely if we don't -- Good progress unemployment we're prepared to employ more policy tools and -- which could include quantitative easing three I heard one of the other guests talk about that it.
Exactly now once again the vote was nine to one the one dissenting Jeffrey -- I want our viewers to -- that Peter Barnes.
Has the ear of many of the Fed members you've spoken to quite a few of them do get the sense that some will jump over to -- side between now and 2014 in the belief that.
We may have to tighten sooner rather than later on rates.
We saw that in the new policy guidance tool that we got this you know this new bar chart that they've started releasing started.
-- at the last meeting in January and it did show at least two members.
Coming over closer to lack.
Saying that hey we may need to tighten sooner rather than later there were there were five.
FOMC members who had this setback in January.
Gotta start tightening in 2014.
This time there were seven.
So we definitely have seen the move towards a tightening sooner because we have seen a slight upgrade.
And the economic outlook for GDP growth for this year.
Falling unemployment they went down to below 8% on average for the year for the first time slightly higher inflation out there because -- -- gas and so.
We are seeing this from this.
New thing that we're all getting -- -- that -- tightening sooner rather than later seems to be the bias now.
Newfangled bar charts we -- really kicking it -- on economic.
That would admit that guys like me loved the wades love this stuff the we're all parents are at eight Peter thank you very much Peter Barnes there at the.
