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Former White House Chief Economic Advisor Austan Goolsbee on the outlook for the housing market.
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I would rate so low people are making home buying a low priority so what I -- in -- When rates could get even -- the very least not budge anytime -- so there's no rush to buy my next guest says.
Fears of falling prices not falling rates are doing more.
Former White House chief economic advisor to Google's thing -- -- -- -- say again what's keeping housing pathetic.
I mean the main thing scheme housing but that again that we got five million vacant homes we got a no way over build during the bubble.
And we're just working through that we got a lot household formation.
Hasn't been very high even though the population went up you still got people live -- kind -- with their parents.
So that's the main thing then the second thing is.
If you look at the affordability measures they've basically never been better prices are low interest rates are low.
Rents are actually if you if you went to read the rent is high so that comparison of renting -- -- -- have none and -- observation that something.
But that's not helping and I think that's not helping because.
You still got -- two things you still got dangers.
And fears.
That prices might go down.
And two.
-- been real tight so even though the interest rate is -- it's hard to get a mortgage.
The private mortgage insurance is tough to get say you gotta have a big down payment.
And they only want people with the very very good credit so I think those are Y housing east.
In a bid well I had the outs that you had an element of -- an -- housing why is that going to talk about this the overhang of supply there's a lot of it.
And a lot of very Smart economists say you know.
That's a ten year fifteen year you know.
Revising.
And and we're we're we've got a ways to go by that measure -- Hi do think we have a ways to go -- CEO also ways to fifteen years though all right so we're about 56 years.
-- -- Some argue.
Maybe around five -- average so that would argue another -- at a minimum.
Do you -- that.
Now -- not necessarily as I say the critical thing that's gonna determine that.
Relates to what how quickly are people forming new households -- now so.
If you saw Fannie and Freddie started converting some of the single family.
Or other owned housing into rentals of the stock that that empty houses that they are holding.
That would certainly help if you saw the economy started to turn up -- young people we're getting employed.
And moving out of their -- -- basement that would help.
By the way and I don't they don't have to be an -- based on they could still be general room -- they can be in the garage or I don't know where they are gonna want to -- -- -- their -- houses but I'm ready to get psychological soups.
Wait we you know.
By how they feel if -- comment about the future if your comment about your own future if you're confident about your job security spells job security.
You'll while they yes I think you're right -- -- right right but I I I think people are still.
Skittish sets a big purchase and a lot of people say well you know now what's eye catching a falling -- count me -- Yeah I think that's right look and and the worst housing collapse -- ever seen in our lifetimes in the United States.
And people are very hesitant about.
Taking out a big mortgage where they're gonna have that debt hanging over the what do you think they should stop -- mortgage rewrite -- and housing rescues because.
It just seems to have drawn out the agony.
And maybe the better part of -- here is to cease and desist -- Well I don't know whether it be if you start looking at.
Let's try to foreclose on everybody as quickly as possible just get it over with.
I think -- -- risk -- there is that you create the equivalent of a bubble.
Going down that you had as the bubble going up because you know we if you foreclose on a place.
The people in that houses surrounding that house.
They see their prices go down -- very negatives weren't seeing that now you -- risk and now it's like when you did around.
With a band aid is ripped the Sakharov you know.
Yeah that that is a theory I just -- and let's be a little careful given what what we've been through.
Doing things are gonna drive the prices down rapidly in the short run but Citi you don't.
-- we've got to processed through this stock and get this.
Get these houses.
Turned into rentals it's very weird.
That house prices in case -- would be still falling.
While rental prices are going up quite significantly in most markets -- we -- that the same.
Product so they ought to be moving together -- because the market is telling us.
Convert some of that stuff into rentals but that people are doing it.
Our -- always good having you thank you very much.
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