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Wells Fargo Senior Economist Mark Vitner argues that the economy is improving despite recent economic data.
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Really getting better we're gonna talk more at home prices later but we also news this morning consumers are not exactly the most confident bunch of -- -- senior economist at at Wells Fargo he joins us out pretty flat consumer confidence number but maybe.
Down a little bit it's still not where you'd be if the economy was in a really really healthy position so.
Do you think things are really getting better mark.
Well.
Things are getting a little bit better it's it's really the the the extent of the improvement that.
We're we're we're were disappointing and normally the economy would grow two and a half percent if you just left them alone.
It would grow these two and a half percent on its own devices given population growth and productivity.
And we're coming short of that and I think there's a lot of frustration out there because of that.
It's showing up -- consumer confidence numbers.
Well you talk about even that number for example I think the rating was 69 point two -- that you -- actual number is irrelevant other than the fact you say if the economy is really going great to be up -- Parent India.
That ninety would be a pretty decent read you wouldn't -- rate -- by any stretch of the imagination that it would be.
It -- it would be could be more typical of a growing economy.
A number around seventy it's still kind of where you would be inherited a recession are just coming out of a recession embers -- years into the recovery.
The and but -- -- some extent I was a little relieved by this number because in the last couple of years we've seen a huge drop off in the spring.
And this year we knew that economic activity was pulled forward to -- it into the first part of the year because of the early arrival of the spring like weather so we -- -- -- a little bit more of a payback they are our forecasts actually had a little bit lower number than what we got so.
Sort of -- set -- a little relief -- it but it still love you would you would like to see better numbers here you'd like to see more improvement.
In the number of people who say that jobs are plentiful because -- really just haven't seen that.
We see the stock market shooting up today than it was down a lot yesterday and that American comp companies as we've been talking about talk more about they're doing pretty well a lot of them they're making -- A lot of money but -- broader question mark we were talking this morning.
We're actually talking with I mistaken and they were both on Imus in the morning and -- he asked us whether the economy's really getting better and we gave a similar answer to what you said yeah.
It is it's improving but they said is it getting better.
Quickly enough to help the president and I think UBS does that couple months ago -- probably probably -- us again might be but now not so sure everything.
I think it's I'm not so sure about that -- and I I really think that by June -- July.
That that we're going to have -- once again we're gonna be concerned about that they that the recovery is stalling again.
Because we we -- there's no doubt that they can economic activity has to some degree -- pull forward in the first quarter up.
And if and when you look at employment conditions it's not just that employment is growing very very slowly -- businesses are reluctant to hire.
But even when they are hiring a disproportionate share of the jobs will be created -- part time jobs there they're relatively low paying professions.
And and we also have a lot of folks that are dropped out of the workforce.
Yeah when you look at the labor market indicators and in the consumer confidence numbers particularly as to how people think the economy is today.
It's still awfully close to where it is at the depths of the recession lower than where it was.
It from that the -- of the 1991 recession or the 2001 recession yes a good day today the stock market but a lot of work to do on the economy our thanks to mark Victor wells for.
