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Mark Lamkin, Lamkin Wealth Management, and Bob O’Brien, Barron’s Online stocks editor, give their takes on whether the economic recovery is pushin...
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Ask yourself this as you look overall the earnings picture all the numbers were getting out -- you -- the economic recovery is actually in trouble.
That's the question that many market participants are looking at some good data that we recently gotten has been a little bit lackluster.
Over the past few weeks let's bring in the experts on this when Barron's online stocks senator Bob O'Brien.
Marc Lampkin Lampkin wealth management CEO mark let me start with you you say overall.
That this is the Rodney Dangerfield.
Recovery because it gets no respect so no concerns about -- some of the negative data that we've gotten.
You know the economy's always gonna ebb and flow it's that it's never going to be a straight line recovery.
The question is does this economy in this market deserve respect and if you look at the numbers you got record GDP he got record earnings in the S&P about -- Great fourth quarter earnings good for up first quarter earnings.
Auto sales that since we we haven't seen since 2008 industrial production -- that twenty are -- consecutive quarters growth so.
The bottom line is these numbers continue to come very well and while this market has recognized this has been that probably the worst -- polar bull market I've ever seen -- -- here's the good news most bull market since 1950 west 58 months' worth 37 and a half months and I still think we've got room to run here.
But I'm cautious heading into the summer.
Yet Bob O'Brien here's the concern for a lot of the market participants as the back but if you look overall at what we've seen -- until they wise and volume wise even more importantly.
We have a heavier volume on the sell days.
That we -- on the by days we had lighter volume in the first quarter numbers higher but volume lower and you're not you're not like -- that at all.
Now I'm not Cheryl because it you know volume translates into convictions so.
What it suggests is that even on the market was drifting higher through the first quarter there wasn't a whole lot of warmth behind that there weren't.
Especially individual investors I think individual investors.
Feel that the market's gotten taken over by high speed trading.
Computer algorithms are dominating the day to day action.
And we're starting to see that creep back into the market with the volatility.
The -- up to twenty from a a low of about thirteen and we've -- more triple digit gains.
Here in the month of April that we saw on the entire first quarter on the downside.
-- as you look at the -- and this of course is the fear gauge for the markets it's been jumping up and we have had a lot of action and the -- has been gone it's gone above twenty mean there's concern there.
And then also you've got the other side of the of the equation here and that is with regards to earnings -- a look at the S&P 500 so far.
Oh is that what 74 of 87 companies that -- actually beat estimates but mark is lowered.
Some months mark.
They were lowered estimates but the bottom line is they still beat -- earnings will still be at record levels and -- three volumes on a great sound right now but I think it has more to do with people sitting at.
But you don't have a tremendous amount of -- right now the -- told investors -- deal with.
Are in a wait and see mode right now and I think that bodes very well let's work these Sony's earnings let's work sits at some of these issues that we're seeing an earn -- there.
But it in Europe there's definitely clouds on the horizon I get that but the bottom line numbers continue to suppress the upset even if they're lower they're still surprising -- like it.
Right market call the market -- little bipolar right now.
I do I you know that I I agree both Bob the volatilities been out there but the bottom line is whether whether be -- and higher than lower I don't know if that's indeed that.
Okay Bob let me ask it -- something also got a kind of watch out for and that is with regards to.
The French elections -- -- looks like we're gonna be sent -- Watson Nicholas Sarkozy.
He is gone that's gonna change the structure that that's gonna change kind of the dynamic that we're getting in -- even with Christine Lagarde -- -- -- and funding that they wanna -- And that's not totally -- to her.
Well and you've got up and they've got her political upheaval taking place across the European continent and he was seeing -- in Greece were seeing it in Spain.
Now we're going to see in France and political uncertainty represents a geopolitical risk.
That the market isn't going to like it creates a measure of uncertainty.
Lot of questions about where France is going to go with its tax rate.
It's going to be astronomically high and the outcome of this election will go very far to determining exactly how high those taxes are going to go.
Mark are you concerned about what you're saying hovering -- our operative that it's -- -- -- US story -- Not that plant concerning -- if you look at 20102011.
You know European fears really from sixteen to 21% correction that it -- started with Europe so I think I think that.
The way France skills that's going to dictate the west the rest of your bills at that 7075%.
Tax rates and and -- say no to the EU budget austerity measures.
I think that puts the Euro on the longer about that happens -- -- win because it is going to -- -- Well -- buckle and fair enough but what about US GDP market mean we're looking at what two and a half percent for for 2012 -- mean.
It's not negative but it's not great either.
But let's get let yes but in 2011 we have four straight quarters.
Of economic GDP -- and GDP growth -- at record GDP levels right now.
Two to two and a half percent is not great but it's not bad in considering the geopolitical risk that's out there and the fear in the -- going up.
I'm comfortable two and a half percent growth what I rather see three to four yes but the bottom line is five straight quarters we've grown and -- record earnings.
Brian giving little Chinese growth I mean 8% and softball for about.
Yeah that was a fall wouldn't want to trade up to 8% consider that a disappointment -- you know Sheryl take a look at what the Chinese Government is doing.
It's trying to curb what had become.
A -- market -- housing.
And you know they're taking proactive steps to try and you don't take the heat off from underneath their housing market because they recognized what took place here in the US for years ago they don't wanna replicate that experience so.
On some levels it's an artificial constraint.
On their growth organic growth in the and you look at you look at their exports in the market month of march they were up over 20%.
-- is still sending stuff.
That way yet that's what you don't watch numbers that have come out like from GE had from Microsoft at.
Look academy although the companies that have that exposure I mean they're US companies that they've got their exposure.
Guys thank you very much mark went and Bob O'Brien body Wednesday with me for the rest of the hour as we got a lot more to talk about him on this still try.
To finally get out of what he's going to be.
