Are we in an economic 'earnvironment'?
Michael Mandel and Daniel Morris explain if the economy is out of a saving slump
- Duration 7:30
- Date Apr 17, 2012
Michael Mandel and Daniel Morris explain if the economy is out of a saving slump
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We have two guests with us right now didn't -- portfolio manager of the manner growth -- here with -- -- studio.
And we welcome back Michael Mandell chief economic strategist for the Progressive Policy Institute Michael -- are coming.
Back to talk to us -- let's -- -- last time before we get today and in some of his stock picks.
We what do you see with what's going on in this economic environment right now because you know we have this.
With earning season it's turned out to be pretty darn good.
And yet we have economic data that is -- still I mean right home builder sentiment is down new starts down.
Clearly unemployment not good all in -- 16% or something -- so where are we.
I chase gave us hospital -- you know that I check for speculators on the might that this.
I find and a -- So -- -- I was -- I would say for at least one day.
I mean it's clear what's going on in the economy at this point is that we have a spotty recovery but it's real it's gradually picking up speed what we see is that.
Is there will be one month's numbers in one area maybe we collected today we had sort of a weak number -- manufacturing industrial production.
Then you have numbers that are that that may be better so it's it's almost -- -- for recovery this picking up speed for that for the numbers being consistent.
This really feels like.
That we're hitting a growth trend.
That is being powered by the communications sector in the tech sector I think it's -- sweeping some of the other sectors of the economy behind -- like the financials.
And then that though.
Daniel we have the financials reporting -- actually doing pretty darn well and maybe our banking system is pretty.
Cushing -- capitalize after all.
But certainly improved a lot over the past couple years that -- -- -- ton of money cheap money into that sector so it's allowed -- to -- rebuild balance -- and and frankly we find that characteristics.
The corporate sector not just in financials -- companies have we built a balance -- -- -- good earnings they've managed the bottom line well.
And they've tried to make sure that they they reduce leverage.
It was they are just a few years ago.
-- and that's what we're seeing we're seeing that this earnings season Michael we're seeing solid companies with solid cash much of that cash was.
Given to them the basic quantitative easing and maybe the market is -- right now because they still think because of the economic data we're gonna see queuing -- You know what's interesting is you're saying that the that the combined fed Obama policy for for -- had a mean the economy is actually working at this point.
Flowing through the financial sector flowing through the tech sector gradually -- the retiree economy up.
Maybe in time for the election it's kind of -- kind of -- -- just think it's kind of vicious things sequence.
-- usually they tell presidents to sort of take their downturn at the beginning of their the beginning of their administration take the boom at the end.
As it was a very deep downturn but you see signs that the economy is coming up I don't think we're gonna see QE3.
I think we're gonna see continued growth.
What we are seeing -- Daniel is -- consumer that I think is pent up.
Now do I think the consumer has the money now.
Because we're seeing it they're dipping into savings and -- picks from MasterCard and veriphone clearly make my point similar charge in their way out of this.
And that's true part of the story with for our colleges in recent edition -- portfolio though is international growth for the consumer spending so we're not just focusing on domestic.
And here's a case where international.
Are embracing technology through mobile devices that CIA the space in Europe someplace.
That technology is sleeping directly to that reference well positioned so it's partly consumer spending the parlay that that would break after the -- and a -- more domestic had a -- Right -- -- ending and and there's no question that that has continued to be a good position our portfolio we've had a for a few years from the market bottom.
Because you recognized the consumers to spend in the way out of -- -- and.
And this is -- part that bothers me Michael is that -- we you know I think we have.
Saving fatigue I'm sick of saving I'm sick of hunkering down.
So wanna get out there I wanna start -- trying to charge and dipping into my seeming so then how does that.
I think that is not a recovery to me it sounds like -- but we just continue to spiral.
Well I think what we're seeing is that the growth in jobs although it's slow is proving to support -- people feel better when they have jobs are willing to go out.
They wanted to go -- -- start to spend.
And that will you start to spend on technology -- that's kind of what we're really comes to people buy new spark phones they're going new TVs.
That's the big thing on their on their on their plate at this point so -- interest in your other guest -- I mentioned veriphone.
This -- the -- you want to think about this.
Is as that tech driven recovery.
With all the -- those are gonna be the bellwethers of the the earnings season of the economy.
Set that is the critical -- to apple I have to ask you.
The stock is down an ever was in panic mode but in theory it's only flat for the last month.
So yours somehow going to convince me that everyone has decided to no longer buy ipads iphones and now.
Books now that frankly apple is one of the largest holdings in our portfolio and it remains one of the best ranked.
Stocks in our portfolio that's important for us -- valuation.
Drives where you wanna put your money so I think despite the fact that Apple's pullback here it is still great stock.
No start go straight -- direction you have.
Has some retrenchment here so many people bought what apple may be some of that hedge funds levered up a little bit it's just a process to get -- back filling the stock over the.
Why let you both go we happy we.
Gotta talk about -- and -- your pleasing to our recovery strangest warns of economic trouble which again -- -- to the party PS me.
How does that play in Michael with the whole recovery here at home.
I think we're gonna keep seeing Europe just bounce along I don't for see a big crisis in Europe -- -- see a big explosion of growth.
They're lagging behind on the -- side they are talking about putting on constraints on data which -- even slow down their that their data driven boom.
And so I think we're gonna CIO it -- here -- that -- -- get a decoupling between Europe and the US.
The US is at the edge of this of this of this tech boom.
And it's and that's what's driving growth -- so.
Is it enough to overcome if -- crashes I don't think so but -- -- see that happening.
Yeah at sort of resigning and feel -- I think were over -- that's probably why.
The consumers trading after again they Armageddon summer there's a little bit of relief now it's just good not to be going backwards anymore and I shows just that.
Staying in place people not getting jobs but being should more secure and our job -- in.
Increased -- interest some of -- consumer holdings -- Bed, Bath & Beyond coats dollar treat these economies solids.
Pretty much through the whole recession -- As I have it's interesting -- we've got to push back early because in a tough market.
People don't buy luxury goods but they do so that top -- has performed well force and dollar tree we recognize that people going to be chasing more value that's a good place for people who spending their money so.
-- while we were -- out.
-- on the top end dollar tree and now we've added in the middle especially real talent we think as well price.
Bed, Bath & Beyond you get this -- -- -- now and you can use and whenever you want they never expire this is why I love the place.
You guys were both terrific might Mandell chief economic strategist progressive policy and -- you gotta come back again.
And Kandahar's portfolio manager of the -- growth fund thank you sir thanks for having me you kill you we need to vote back thank you.