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Peter Zeihan, Stratfor VP of analysis/European analyst, breaks down the economic debt crisis taking place in Europe.
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Rather is still together right now joining me now is because I had vice president of -- for you and European.
Analyst for strapped for Peter.
-- did you know big would we fought over Greece all year last year and finally we thought it was ring post we thought we you know held up a one download the didn't fall none of the others of fall.
Then all of a sudden Italian.
You know yields are going through the roof and Spanish yields are going through the roof and -- feels like.
Days Abu all over again -- -- these are much bigger problems.
And the European certainly have no end of problems -- not just the sovereign debt issue but -- the banking debt issue.
Now in the European defence the LT RO program.
Has put those issues on ice nothing's been -- -- resolved and all of these problems are gonna come back in the future.
But so long as you -- about a trillion euros credit into the system via LT -- a year.
You can hold things steady.
Yet but here's the thing though Peter ice melts.
You know I mean how how long can you -- -- -- say LK a trillion euros here a trillion euros there.
Again and it sits at some point it's gotta come back to it to be -- -- the cures gotta be worsening -- The mid term scenario for Europe in the best case scenario is that they keep -- -- find the system in this manner.
In the matter that the Japanese did in the 1990s.
You get a system where the political system can't really recover the financial system is held on ice.
And everything else is kind of as the slow downward slide into mediocrity.
That's the risk is the -- best case scenario at present.
You know law and -- notes you said -- Southern Europe will never.
We'll never have economic growth again that's a serious statement and the thing as I'm inclined to believe you but why do you believe that.
Most of the economic growth and a modern economy comes from the the mass -- of people their twenties and the thirties people buying homes and cars for the first time in raising children.
Southern European demographics -- are pretty pretty inverted there are actually more forty and fifty something's in most of these cultures and our teenagers and twenty somethings with the possible exception of Spain where there still some or older thirties.
These people have already aged past the point where that sort of consumption driven growth as possible.
That only leaves exports and -- simply don't have the infrastructure the educational system -- the skilled labor necessary to export their way out of this.
You don't talk about the elections in France.
It looks like Sarkozy is not a lot better recently in the polls unfortunately some of that was after that.
You know the attack within -- within France but.
The what do you think the outcome of this election's going to be -- what would it mean for our for the world really.
What's going great on the wire now as soon as they have a public debate between Sarkozy and -- law and I think it's.
Sarkozy is gonna do very well hello does not do very well and interacting with.
People.
And -- though is if anything an Obama asks sort of public speaker now if Sarkozy wins that you're looking at the ratification process for the treaty going on -- as it's been designed you're looking at a continuation of the Franco German relationship as we've become used to seen in the last couple of years.
However if Poland does pull off a victory.
You're looking at at a minimum a partial renegotiation.
Of that treaty which means that all of these.
Checks and balances in new procedures in bailout programs.
And austerity measures everything that has been put into place -- trying to build some degree of market confidence in the last year and a half.
Eyes this guy seed stock and taxing the brits like the I don't semi 5% it's not crazy believe me I never thought I think it's a few years ago hopefully Sarkozy.
-- I have thank god -- recently -- to show.
All right governor.
