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Kevin Holt, Invesco Van Kampen Comstock Fund senior portfolio manager, on today’s market rally and where investors should put their money in this ec...
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Portfolio manager from -- he runs the band camp -- -- on an overseas a total.
This seventeen and a half billion dollars Kevin welcome to -- -- and what do you make of this rally so far today it's kind of amazing isn't it.
Yeah it feels a lot better today Charleston and did over the last week but at the markets had a good move since the first of the year so I think we were due for a pullback.
A little bit weak economic data on the employment side last week combined with.
You know some of the stuff is still going on in Europe and -- the reverberations of Spain and Italy.
I think we're due for a pullback but.
You know I do think we're moving higher.
-- we go forward throughout the year.
You know I -- and Kevin that's the point you know five days obviously we have the longest losing streak of the year we have the worst week of the year the worst day of the year but -- that's all -- on -- experience in bad times I'll take any any time I mean that this market just resolve.
To go -- have so why.
Yeah I would say there's there's a few -- -- few things were looking out for one.
The foundation I think was set in the second half last year when the ECB implemented the LT -- to infuse liquidity into the financial system in Europe.
That I think is what really set the foundation.
Is US economy has not been robust but it's been growing at a slow -- slow pace -- last twelve or eighteen months.
So I think eight kind of enable the financial markets to gains more confident so that so we can move higher.
With that said there there you know there are still some issues out there.
You know US government policy we have tax cuts that are expiring at the end of this year.
On Alan Blinder who worked on the Clinton administration economic team.
Talked about how that with some of the austerity cuts could be a three and a half percent cut to GDP in thirteen.
We need the government to stuff for -- -- right thing here for consumers.
For our economy and we have to watch China to on the appeared to be you know today China's economic growth appear to be a little better and people thought a week ago.
I think here in the US we would love to 8% spent -- Kelly you know it's 77 and a half I think we're in pretty good shape.
What the -- what's more most important right now and then when I wake up in the morning I checked three things I checked the -- apple in China you already mentioned Europe.
What's what are these things could derail the stock market rally first our economy China's economy.
Or there's a sense that the ECB and a Federal Reserve are gonna pull back.
I think -- I think ultimately.
Probably the ECB and liquidity -- needs any time we've had a sense that.
One of the economic body from the country of pullback liquidity and seem to get a sell off.
So it's important whether it's here in the US -- the ECB.
That people have confidence that they're gonna maintain liquidity in the markets because as deleveraging process is gonna take years it's not going to take months.
Having said that I know that you have been a huge fan of financials you talked about a mile last time you on this show your print and some recent articles talking about them is while they perform admirably.
Do you still like financials and you think though that's sort of the perfect proxy pretty us economy.
Yeah -- -- if you find financials are uninteresting and you know they worked well year to date.
But if you go back twelve months on the larger banks that we have in the in the US are still down 2030% even though it back to -- year to -- so.
-- valuations are still very expensive they're coming off a very low base so we really do like the money center bank super large regional banks in the capital markets banks.
We do think that some of the smaller regional banks -- are kind of entering full value.
Type scenario but we'd like the bigger banks and I any type of pullback.
Given amount of excess capital that these large banks are to generate this year in future years even lower economic growth.
What you know we're we're we're gonna aggressively add on those -- large ranking position.
And if you have Kevin every city journal you said that were bottom were bottom up stock -- our attitude is that 99.9 percent at a time.
If the economy is -- it will eventually -- good that's a pretty sanguine approach to take.
If they think investors should share that approach in that -- so much not panic so much and not take those big losses when whoever whenever we do have pulled -- Yeah.
I think it's imperative you have a long term framework -- gone on record saying over the last year.
The problems we have in the world are very tough to solve but at least we know what they are now were 2345.
Years ago we didn't know what they were.
I think the market to discounting mechanism so we kind of just kind of this ahead of time.
I think we're in -- in terms liquidity in deleveraging throughout the economy so.
You need to be patient you remember that the market right now is about thirteen.
Price earnings ratio.
1212013.
Numbers are very attractive on a long term basis.
So stay patient.
And you know what's going on around you.
But -- you can pragmatic in this environment.
Thanks so much demo hall to invest code words of wisdom we appreciate it thanks.
