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The BlackBay Group managing principal Todd Schoenberger and Stock Trader's Almanac president Jeffrey Hirsch give their outlook for the markets.
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Ladies thank you very much in this fight despite everybody the five -- 500 plus point decline stocks are still up considerably.
Forming a year take a look at the numbers and if you fills all the better Dow is up nearly 5% so -- in today S&P up 8% NASDAQ.
Up almost 15%.
But -- -- question should you be locking enough profits and just sell in May and go away does that market mantra holed up.
This year Jeffrey Hirsch is editor in chief of stock trader's almanac and also with -- onset of the hour right Todd Schoenberg -- managing principal.
At -- black bigger abdominal a lot of questions are but Jeff do you immersed yeah the predictions of what do you say case that you would be getting out of the market now.
We give ourselves in the back in April 3 so while another the -- of litigators crossed over -- red meat.
-- of the best six months to April's the last of last month invest six months so.
We were expected to come we'll -- the big February had -- concerned and mean I would come came along way since our October 6 buy signal so we're okay figures of profits here.
-- it's taken some profits here -- that Tellme has been saying that you get defensive -- we can talk about the sectors -- type that says to me then.
That we need to -- getting out of market now maybe you get a little bit of a bump up today and take it off the table.
Head for the hills right now there's any strength in this rally today he -- want to sell out right now.
Look we have another -- asset markets were rallying in the first quarter because of hopes of quantitative easing three.
We already heard from the chairman that's not going to happen now we have to step back and look at earnings right now yeah Alcoa was a beat big deal we're moving forward next week -- tell you earnings -- sees this season.
It's gonna be and it's fascinating to the markets right now you wanna get out why can't.
But -- there and there -- certain things about the economy the markets that are different from years past and look at 2011 I mean it was a -- the year you'll look back over history.
From we lost 20% between may and October -- -- -- -- away last year for -- saved yourself a lot of pay by -- -- -- but things are different issue the economy is improving the call this is showing us the housing sector in those stocks have been doing a lot better.
Are what is it a little more extremes take the position of jump out completely this year all the things are a little bit yeah.
-- have to always jump -- completely we tighten up stops we take some downside protection will look at the IDF the you know seven -- ten year of iShares.
Treasury iShares.
And also the TLT there's a new fund com.
Relatively new active there its HDG that's one of our downside protection trades -- and that's a fund that show -- short.
If you're shorting stock they're waiting until the bonnet there there they have a really nice.
Methodology and -- and I think that they've they've got it right and that's -- it's a great place to be for downside protection so you don't have to just sell everything out right.
Tighten -- take some profits.
And I do think we might get some disappointment from the economic arena also.
OK so you're selling it you're saying you're gonna look at some look at some treasury and short sell stocks tied your -- get defense of you mean sector defense so.
Well you can't do that but -- -- wanna stick with a money management can actually do short and long at the same time similar to what Jeff was talking about.
Because YouTube growing need to be protective on both sides of the -- you wanna know whether this is it time to sell it did this and still you can take advantage of about moving into short positions -- that -- TF -- Jeff as much.
OK so ETS not -- Alec HD GL like the ticker on that yeah but what about the traditional safety plays that we saw investors flocked to Todd.
In 2011 that was health care that was consumer -- what about the sector right when you're always gonna look at Staples and that's always going to be a big -- he can even look at stacks of minutes mimic the US -- -- -- -- and said -- look at the first quarter of 2012 it wasn't about -- wasn't about healthcare I was about financials anymore -- -- -- -- with Bank of America -- You guys -- have hopes of how can we Harriett third round look at that's going to be the case and lower interest rates that's how the financials are gonna make all their money.
You wanna stay away from the -- attractive financials right now -- -- that a million times -- -- I'm telling you just head for the hills sell into the strength.
Don't evening but no I don't right now you about the financials I would have missed out on the first three months of two almighty -- -- -- -- idea but it's the gambling in my -- -- -- could extract comes on the daily double what do better for you than to buy a Bank of America right now to look at the regional banks if you wanna get into the financial.
All right Jeff you're a -- like you -- a new book about about about the markets -- if you're calling -- -- 38000.
And I -- realignment that -- -- -- sure I -- -- came -- last year is -- this time last year that that time period is by the year 20/20 five.
But within that forecast -- several years of sideways.
Trading action and I think we're gonna be backing for the for quite a few years -- right now 56 years.
I have us you know starting that big upturn in between 172018.
After -- to -- more election your cycles and and and that sort of thing.
OK so you're saying that.
2017.
Candidates it's also for those of us they're willing to hang in there for a few more years that don't need the money right away you waits for the opportunities -- -- abuses it -- your you know long term holdings when the -- is -- below 101000 or thereabouts or somebody declares bear market on television.
That's -- time to a lot of stocks -- -- but it was Emily Todd does what on television.
Well again if it does look he's just -- -- -- hit a 38000 in the Dow if you add apples to.
To the end access it may get there well that's OK that's a good point that you brought up apple that's a great point about a stock like that which has been one of the reasons that you see in the NASDAQ rice still 15% year today it was up 17% up at the height.
Brilliant compound the market should have its -- index I mean look this -- the home market it is the entire market and you be afford not to buy apple and believe it or not it's undervalued at this price he would abide.
-- you -- -- just came out the caller this look at that apple is where's the new product gonna come I can't sell her suicide lets you do not do that.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- All of their -- of -- let me ask you -- -- overall we -- we don't -- to be out of the woods -- they -- say the 2012.
From overall perspective is better but still there are concerns about Spain -- not set out about Spain -- concerns about the Fed.
No more bond buying their backing away what does that mean for the next six months guys.
I'm seeing a soft.
Last year through the Q2 two Q3 period as the election campaigning heats up and then you know rally through the years if it looks like Obama's gonna -- October -- will be stronger.
She gets ousted.
November will be stronger -- way it's already -- -- market rally if President Obama loses.
Vision someone pay you November rally wind.
The incumbent gets.
You know doesn't get real now.
To -- -- that there with countries celebrated they've got some into it there.
-- -- yes right about that I would say the rally will Begin though in January next year if Obama is saying if he loses the election.
However there for the rest the year with a debt bonds and you mentioned Sheryl let's brilliant because that is going to be a long outstanding issue for us to have to deal.
I love the predictions from both of you thank you very much -- first let's see you again by the way in the back any time -- we're stuck with you for the rest of our.
