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The Philadelphia Trust Company CEO Mike Crofton on the outlook for the market and how investors should adjust their portfolios accordingly.
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Guest says a -- a recent employment data and the economy may now be settling back below trend growth.
And the market could be in a period of very constrained performance joining us now -- my classes CEO the Philadelphia trust company.
And Mike we have the job numbers on Friday then we see again more head winds coming out of Murat and China.
And now tomorrow we're about two enter into your first quarter earnings season what's it gonna look right down the road out in the next few weeks.
I think Jerry's are gonna be mediocre in the market's gonna be choppy and as I mentioned in my notes very very constrained you know the employment numbers probably trending back towards where it should be a 100101000.
What we saw our for the last -- you know at least three and probably six months is really the normal replacement cycle.
The market hit real lows in the first quarter of 09 -- of real long time to decide they don't want to move higher.
And we've seen.
Certainly good numbers coming out of the economy but those numbers are really the result of constrain spending for very long period of time.
Now that spending is out of the way the market's gonna settle into much more.
One dean approach to move to life you know there's gonna it's gonna muddle along.
But also in your notes and no way shape or form are you advising your clients to buy bonds here or sell a little bit event you know you you're not running for recover and running for state now here.
-- so what is your strategy.
My strategy is where you buy those sectors of the market in those parts of the market that have been active catalysts -- technology being one of them the cloud it's sort of an overplayed metaphor but the cloud is certainly going to be a dynamic.
Growing market moving forward and -- a lot of companies it will benefit from that.
Energy certainly in the theme that we can -- make some money -- weak domestic energy is the international problems don't seem to be getting any better.
Middle East is still in turmoil Europe seems to be.
You know muddling along may be getting worse than China still not convinced China is coming if -- clinic if China comes in for a hard landing.
Then we're gonna have some real economic good disruption they'll be more disruption in the Middle East and domestic oil will be great place today.
Mike you talk about some of the more obvious micro catalyst what about on a macro level a lot of you use some interesting words -- Monday -- Model things like that what's -- -- Get the overall economy to sort of catapulted forward.
Don't know we have a real problem worldwide in the economy I -- the balance sheets of most sovereign nations or in real big trouble.
Except Citi developing world that's the most balance -- seem to be strong and strengthening.
But they're not big enough to carrier rest of us we have to really Begin to think outside the box to solve our problems.
We have big problems domestically as we all know although the market doesn't seem to be paying a lot of attention -- those right now our deficit continues to expand.
The transfer payment programs that have been in place here for many many decades -- Basically.
Getting ready to cripple the economy so we have big problems and it's not going to be easy I think the market is so looking past those but looking at what I don't know.
Yeah well on that note then Mike one of the things I think that's helped a lot going all the way back to to the -- of 2009.
As many expectations game value deflated out therefore no question -- were not expecting a whole lot then we sort of can share ought to get one of these rallies based on the the silver lining.
Well actually look at these rallies is sort of climbing a wall of dilution everybody seems to be looking at something that I certainly can't see obviously there's a lot of great valuation in the market real large cap companies even the mid cap company -- -- small cap companies.
Have very very compelling valuations.
But you've got -- would just your outlook it's not gonna be short term it's not even going to be mid term for some of these companies is gonna take a very long term.
Very long period of time for these valuations the play themselves out and reward investors.
All right so let's talk about some of this plays that you are willing to make bets on right now might you like -- CE base among other names at what -- tell me what your love and about these.
Well I think.
Pepsi has no choice but to split itself until and I think that's gonna happen sometime in the next eighteen months.
Fellow -- a tremendous amount of -- of the stock we'll go probably into the high eighties low ninety's if that would happen like Whiting Petroleum that's another name on my list.
Whiting Petroleum is couple 100% domestic oil play in the Balkans shale it's misunderstood it trades -- -- come due in fact it's really like an oil company.
EBay you've got really two businesses -- the auction business in the retail business.
Which I don't really spend a lot of time thinking about what you think a lot about PayPal that this is is a dynamic.
Growing component of the business and is gonna really change the way retailers done in this country they're gonna be on the forefront of that I really want to participate in it.
I died they spent a lot of time thinking about that dead that dynamic -- a lot of transition for -- with the PayPal being a huge growth driver.
Certainly makes a lot of sense my -- and CEO Philadelphia trust company thanks for joining us today by.
