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And companies are you know how the saying goes April showers bring may flowers will Bob Bauer says.
It's going to be rain and it's going to be a lot of -- so what's the best way to make your investments blossom Bob is the principal global investors chief global economist.
Joining us -- a Fox Business exclusive.
To do more -- hello -- thank you for being here.
Thailand's nice to be -- you -- at Davos you see some Green shoots even in light of this jobs report that we got this morning.
Yes but they're down the road a little bit that we think for that the last couple of years we've seen that.
Data be pretty good through the winner and -- a slowdown in the spring and early summer and we think we're gonna see that dead this year now.
But by early part of that second half we think there's several things -- auger for a much better second half.
Number one not state government and local government revenue is rising taxes on sales tax in in -- and that.
Property are all rising nicely so that problems and the dragon the layoffs from state governments anyway we think will be fading by at the middle of the year.
Secondly we take employment is that starting to pick up you know businesses are very lane in their payrolls and a push productivity about as far as they -- Possibly can.
A second -- -- we think manufacturing is that going very strongly think if you look at payroll growth in manufacturing it's just about to the record are close to the record of the last several decades and and we think housing is clearly bottomed by most any major you really look at that yes we I came -- I ask you -- because we've heard that heard of from a lot of really Smart people for the past year and a half and the prices have not bottom they're they're either bumping along the bottom or -- Taking a slight step -- in this picture shows that offer new home sales.
Well yes that's true but I'm talking about activity and not necessarily prices housing starts housing sales traffic through -- Open houses investor our -- home builder confidence those things are all -- Fairly well off the bottom now prices are still -- -- follow a little bit more because of a high proportion of distressed sales.
But if you look at -- series of those that only includes non distressed home sales those are actually up about a percent off the low.
-- a bought a pet tonight just quickly -- focus in on the markets do you think the number that we saw this morning which was a big miss for job creation still we saw job creation but.
Nowhere -- what was expected.
Will that ruin the opportunity to continue to see the rally in the stock market the likes of which we've seen for the first three months of this year.
I don't think eventually but we've been expecting this spring slowdown in part it's a statistical quirk but.
They're also some give backs from my good performance last year so we've been that we think the second quarter probably be pretty volatile but we would think by AF.
Early in the second half or maybe September anyway.
That we can see that rally start and that end the year in decent fashion.
OK all right now the question becomes what happens with the tax changes that are coming in 2013.
-- -- anybody who's doing their -- now on meeting with accountants are talking to people over at H&R block or what have you are are hearing about this.
And worried is there way to sort of bullet proof your portfolio for all of this.
Well some of -- if you need to take some capital gains -- probably would be wise to take a mad this year but there is a tax monster coming or you might say F fiscal cliff for attacks -- that debt.
We might walk off I think their 42 separate provisions.
That either expire or start January 1 of next year tomorrow that -- that that adds up to 430 billion dollars thereabouts -- tax increases.
Every year unless those taxes have something not done with them.
So we don't know that that's enough to really precipitate a recession but it sure gonna drag growth very slow like.
Still there's always opportunity out there Bob good to see you thank you for being here.
Thank you list -- holidays.
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