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Well those surging gas prices now are hurting all -- cells at least not yet marked with another good month for auto makers and our next guest says that higher gas prices are only affecting -- type of -- that people by at least in the short term joining us now Rebecca -- -- I just automotive director of research and and how glad -- -- -- Overall we are very happy with both march and the first quarter in general it really exceeded our expectations.
We had anticipated sales to be closer to the 149 unit range and -- -- like fourteen point five million which is great news.
But you're you're estimate for the entire year is fourteen so you might expect this the -- -- a little bit maybe -- got a little warm weather bump that type of thing.
We did have a little warm weather bomb but just today -- thought about it actually announced that we're at fourteen point two million unit for 2012.
We're not go much higher than that because we do have concerns about consumer confidence.
About these high gas prices.
And really just the and we can't -- -- recovery in housing and so all of those things you just dampening down our enthusiasm just a little -- How much of this can be sort of explained away yet Charles alluded to warmer weather than expected -- that's how that's helped their retailers and you know high gas prices are getting people to reevaluate their car driving choices.
At some point you know -- could be negative factors in Mena -- -- will the warm weather is not gonna help us for two line.
And then higher gas prices can keep people completely away from buying so just as quickly as it comes it can also go away right it it -- and but one of the things that we're really looking at is.
Who's buying and right now replacement demand is driving the market.
The average vehicles ten point eight years old.
Trucks are actually younger but the average car is older.
So we still have a lot of consumers that are driving really.
Fuel inefficient vehicles.
You know what what we bought -- -- -- years at 2002001.
Those were all big tracks and they got really pretty bad fuel economy.
So now -- consumer goes and says you know should -- should I do repair my car or should I look at a new -- They can look at many models that get 253035.
Miles per gallon which was not the case a few years I also read it data points from when you're competitors and in stock come who said that -- incentives were down 3%.
In March from February how does all of that work itself that -- well well and this is a friend not a competitor yeah.
We do -- together on many things that.
When we look at and -- says it's actually really a case by case size by size vehicle it's very very rich tradition.
We're in March Madness to drive truck sales and we saw that some in GM's numbers in particular huge numbers on.
There Sierras Silverado pickup tracks.
Really good numbers from GMC.
So when we look at the incentive picture of course -- -- good numbers and high incentives on small cars because we're still rebuilding inventory.
And they really are very much in demand with the fuel economy prices.
I always find an answer saying I think as I look the last -- numbers February's numbers and I see you know -- That at 150s still rock and roll in the -- you add up how much money Americans spend on the it's amazing.
What would one do we see you gas prices really really.
Make sort of -- paradigm shift with respect to someone who might have been a -- -- truck driver switching to a fuel efficient car.
-- it actually made that switch -- what we've seen is that fashion buyer we call them has largely left the pick -- truck market.
And we are actually in an error where people use them as god intended them to be used -- hair used on islands farmed in commercial environments for people actually need to track.
As opposed to the fashion buyer who just thought it was cool which it is coal and -- a dollar fifty but it's not so -- -- Does shown up at the club and at 150 mpeg -- -- a -- -- -- accident.
Hard to -- yeah.
So can we say now then that the auto industry is back and more importantly the American auto industry because I sense that important GM aren't keeping up with some -- -- Yeah actually I think that we have gotten rid up so much access in our industry we have gotten rid.
And dealers access brands.
Or really and a much better position now and we're seeing it in mayor in their financial results I think the -- -- that Wall Street highs with.
The Big Three is simply that it's such an incredibly cash intensive industry that you've got to have.
Billions can you can burn through billions really quickly -- -- we've found that out there are we ever got a little.