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Robert Prechter on the State of the Markets

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    Wall Street legend Robert Prechter on the concerning economic and market climate.

  • Duration 5:42
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The smartest and the best in my mind has that -- unvarnished of artists Robert -- -- that immigrant.

I think you're way overly kind I think a lot of you were just to give you all the negatives that that they perceive about -- it's -- having a public persona isn't it.

Did is it as well some people it's amazing they think upset I don't what you're talking about on but any way anyway.

Let's talk a little bit about the environment now you always sort of -- this isn't about.

Timing this is about getting the big picture right -- on trivializing air the big picture to hear a lot of folks tell it now is that the markets back.

Because the economy is back and because companies have cleaned their balance sheets to the point that there are ready and revenue -- you agree -- not.

-- -- Sure all of these economic statements are more or less correct in their own context.

But when -- trying to use them to forecast with stock price are gonna do you're gonna get yourself in trouble.

As you said everybody recently is pointed out how rosy things are starting to look we've had been a recovery for three years.

I just heard a major bank.

Suggest that the market was about to launch or Begin.

A new bull market that always harassment when I hear -- after -- I know and so we you know what people felt like back in the first quarter of 2009 they were scared to death -- -- 667.

There's a completely different market environment -- -- was slowing on the downside announced slowing on the upside and everybody is -- really really optimistic.

Fact one indicator just decide one market being has been around for decades.

Keeping daily tabs on what the investment advisors are saying.

The last time the thirty day moving average.

Percentage of bulls was as high as it is today.

Was July.

Of 2007.

No less important time and relative to the fundamentals I think it's a remarkable -- -- other words a contrarian.

View on these numbers is that when so many people are bullish.

Not good just a few of the same percentage were bearish you know -- -- -- had now.

-- was kind of contrary the contrary to prison -- doesn't give you the exact timing -- just climate and back in early 09 I was really excited about markets and I'm excited about not being involved.

Art when you say not being involved what does that mean you're just out period.

Oh yeah 100% I think people should be in cash now that -- mean the market can go further.

In fact I got bearish too early and in both the last two big moves as you pointed out earlier.

But eventually the piper gets paid when you see figures like this and there's no point in trying to.

You know squeeze out the last bit because you can get -- -- trouble that way most people.

By too late and then they don't sell -- hold on and they hold on hold until it finally despair and and to get out of the very best price.

But you know other people in early 2009.

You know through the worst of the debacle when you sold some light at the end of the tunnel.

Say nothing about 81 and 82 and you clearly slow light at the end of the tunnel.

One very boulevard and -- I remember that -- think what it does is testament to my age against.

Now I'm wondering.

It's if you could argue that that bull market in sued for what did twenty plus years in -- little bit but I would I would carry it right true.

-- -- today with some of these disruptions in the meantime but we can equivalent of that what what makes you think that what we're going through now.

Is -- just a -- did the disruption in that.

Been that long bull market.

Well we talked about some of the sentiment figures and you can look back at certain times in history and finds a few very few times when people were actually more optimistic than they are now.

But what really strikes me about the past three years rally and at the -- we I was saying look.

I think we're gonna have a big move put in my book it's -- is likely be a bear market rally on and bull market that -- its only gonna retraced part.

Of the decline from 2007 to 2009.

Now another big category of indicators that I've been watching for years and years all the momentum group.

And one of the things this strikes me about this rally is -- Not only has volume been -- all the way but it has been the chlorine.

Through the entire advance.

This is usually bearish -- it happens for six months or a year and a half but what does that mean the Hamptons what does that mean.

Well it usually does not -- around the rally that the public is gone and it's it's an institutional market the last time we had something like that.

Was 1970 to 73 the value wanted pick up 1968.

The public was all excited they got killed in the bear market in the 1970 and they did not come back but here's an acquisition -- fifteen market like today.

Robert his words it -- -- -- -- you're an expert but as you know Robert I play one on TV.

That the market when we talk about the institutions that is us they are us much more so than ever before through 41 case of pension plans through through mutual fund holdings so that is us to drive businesses and.

Well things a little bit different than it has been in the past for example now what's going on for the most part.

The Fed is doing a lot of monetization of debt they're making those credit new credit lines available to investment banks and hedge funds than those people are putting.

Buying stocks at thirty times leverage.

So that kind of leverage behind the market I think is vulnerable to reversal but let's take one small little an indicator.

You know for ten straight days from the six the march to the 21.

All of the three major averages or at least one of them closed up every single day for those ten days and yet fire those days there -- more stocks down than up.

I think there's an internal security before looking.

The same.

Interest her very interest cigarette.

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