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A recent report show a slight improvement in the economy.
Which gives some Americans little glimmer of hope maybe but my next guest says.
There's an eerie parallel between today's economic situation social unrest geopolitics.
With those of the Great Depression are we headed for an economic disaster.
Or worse -- mean that was trends research institute founder Gerald solidity in general we -- talking.
Before the segment here you started your business in 1980.
1980 Jimmy Carter's going -- -- Ronald Reagan's coming in view was morning in America.
Want to look.
Well for a for a while it was and then things started to change.
They start region I believe they really started to change with the with the banking system that again first well on the political atheist I don't believe in anybody's political religious and I see things what they are not -- -- to -- and so what I have to say has the political agenda behind it.
When did things work the best they weren't the best in the Glass-Steagall act was there I agree.
They work the best before NAFTA.
I was standard -- -- was much higher again these -- only -- it's only the data so when did it start to change that's when this change started happening.
So when I say look at the parallels.
The crash of 29.
The Great Depression.
Trade wars world war.
The panic of -- way.
The Great Recession slash depression is a depression going on in Greece in Portugal and Spain and Ireland -- Romanian.
Bulgarian -- this depression is going on we're a severe recession -- this this recovery.
You know it's if it's a Paper recovery.
Which currency was a war already happening trade -- -- heating up -- and -- that nice one.
How looked out Iran.
You -- number one.
Will keep they'd -- all right you're talking about a wrong and you're you're talking about the fact that Iran is that we are going to have a war.
You think we're going to go to war in that it will.
Cover up the financial problems that we him.
Again run a little parallels again I'm not talking about what -- -- talking about law.
I tell you hi -- don't want you would have videos nuclear weapons and if you do bombs away Obama.
Alba -- I'm not making this up.
So if they take it's the same path the path is being laid out in front of us.
History is repeating itself only the names and places of change chilly but does -- to -- gets a week if we go to war with the -- Are you saying that it will cover up the financial problems because of the fact that the war machine will provide.
Job growth and various industries and so -- -- are you talking about something much but a much bigger much different look.
Seven of the last three -- post world war recessions.
Were preceded by spikes in oil prices.
If we go to war against Iran we're saying this is the -- -- of world war three.
You wanna talk about a fragile recovery -- -- that'll do it really nice.
This -- these aren't the Iraqis these -- it.
The Libyans these -- the Persian as they get around real long time is seventy million of them and then -- going anyplace.
So what we're saying is if there's -- by the -- war has already been declared.
An economic war has been declared by the senate.
And signed by President Obama on on -- -- -- with the national defense authorization act.
The embargo is being put upon Iran again another parallel but -- flip remember that in Japan they.
Cut the Japanese offer resources before World War II the story they never talk about now they're.
Stopping Iran from selling their resource is oil production -- Iran now is down at a ten year low.
So we're putting them out of business did bill being this drew they're beating the drums of war -- You've you've followed trends you predict you write about trends at what your -- businesses about -- Do you worry sometimes about getting off of the financial trends -- and I go back to warm.
Think -- was maybe late eighties early ninety's there was a guiding Joseph Granville Joseph Granville -- called the crash of 87 almost to the day.
And Joseph -- bill that was touted as being that -- -- -- everybody on Wall Street.
Joseph started predicting earthquakes the neck and it was crazy and so -- lost all of credibility.
Do you think that you get that the financial markets where you really focus a lot of your your time and effort.
That you're getting -- some of these other things really are far afield from all have not at all we.
Look at over 300 different -- categories on the guy that came up with the term clean food in nineteen.
-- -- three the whole organic movement organic coffees all things are connected or -- chief Seattle said.
All things are connected like the blood which unites -- -- so when you're looking and data.
You -- -- geo political you can -- that you could business you look at social you bring them all together.
And that's how we make our forecasts and by the way the -- way I began to make my name was -- to -- the 1980 seven's.
He did you did did she did so it's worsening -- now plane around thirteen thousand.
We're back to a number of makes lot of people not afraid to open their 401K statement.
Where are we going to be.
Our our -- short term forecast six months or are you more of six years well.
Is long as they keep interest rates low this is again a replay.
What got us out of the crash of 2000 when the NASDAQ crash that we were in a recession.
After 9/11 they began to lower interest rates to 46 year lows right and now the Fed is flooding them the marketplace -- cheap money.
With interest rates at near zero.
So was -- -- and the Europeans are doing the same thing with the ECB as you well know jumping one point.
Two trillion dollars into the banks to borrow for three -- present 1% interest so as long as they keep putting money into it.
It'll keep what are you doing -- -- in gold.
I -- gold I began buying gold in 1978.
Took about -- Carter.
My first by it was a 18750.
-- that you went through some lean years -- I also board at the high.
On a holiday I had a -- -- yes I learned I learned a lot -- growing a learning process mom I'm vested.
Over 80% and gold have been -- here's some numbers by the way go back ten years you're talking about the market ten years ago.
A barrel of Brent crude was selling at twenty -- roughly 22 dollars about.
Today it's selling at.
At roughly a 124.
Dollars a barrel go back ten years ago gold.
Dollars announced now with the pull back.
Yeah if you made that one investments.
-- -- five times return.
Gerald -- take -- always full of great information -- -- interest in thank you so much for taking your time thank you so much for having --