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Duke University finance professor John Graham discloses what CFOs think about the economy in a survey conducted by Duke University and CFO magazine.
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Initial jobless claims rising last week up 8000 to 362000.
And we are waiting of course the monthly jobs report coming up first thing tomorrow economists predicting unemployment will remain at eight point 3%.
But according to a new survey asked chief financial officers we could see this rate fall below 8% this year.
Here to explain from Durham, North Carolina Fox Business exclusive as John brand director of the survey conducted by duke university and CFO magazine -- -- But OK so you're so -- showing a significant jumps some what -- surprising jump in CF felt confident lies that.
So see if those -- become a lot more optimistic in the United States as.
The the labor situation has been improving GDP growth has been reasonably strong.
The banking sector seems to be healing.
And it all adds up to more optimistic view in the in the US where we're back up to the long run level of optimism.
But perhaps most importantly we're expecting hiring to go up.
By about 2% in the United States over the next year.
That which translates as you said into an unemployment rate around seven and a half seven point 7% somewhere in that range within the next twelve months.
OK that's encouraging but let's look at it this way.
You're survey came out the confidence level of 59 out of the hundreds of is barely over the satisfactory -- -- -- got to be some concerns remaining among these CFOs Canada us.
There are some concern so we are back up to 59 which is the long run average but CFOs are concerned about what's happening in Europe right now.
-- -- assuming that that's stabilized but if Europe if a number of banks were to go under in Europe that would that would hurt the United States.
See -- -- also tell us are having a difficult time raising prices of the products.
-- well that's good for consumers.
It's it's really putting that the constraints on companies in terms of raising revenues.
And then finally tying back into the employment and other top concern is the ability to attract and retain.
Qualified employees and certain sectors of the of the labor market.
It's interesting 68% of your CFO's survey say they're actively trying to fill positions.
That's a considerable percentage.
So give me a sense of the timeline for when will see this overall unemployment rate dropped to below 8%.
We're thinking by the end of the year and certainly is as of next January we should see the unemployment rate down below 8%.
According to these projections from the CFOs.
Another interesting finding the survey is what see if -- would do.
With dividends depending on what.
250000 dollars a year.
He's gonna tax -- hires we know it's a CFOs are positioning.
Many say they'll pay a special dividends ahead of that -- going into effect if it does.
And many are -- just overall cut the dividend rights we might lose out on that if the president.
Right so with that that's rated if the dividend tax rate were to go -- about 40%.
36% of companies tell us they would rate increase their dividends less than they otherwise would or just hold off on how long.
It would be and -- the increase dividends.
So with investors being taxed higher -- dividends being paid out.
That -- the cost of equity would go up cost to capital going up for companies all kind of as a result of that the -- dividend tax -- OK interesting -- John --
