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Mitchell Research & Communications President Steve Mitchell explains how history is not always on the side of the Michigan primary winner.
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Those aren't let's go to.
More on Michigan while the candidates scramble for last minute votes out there our next guest says history.
First the outcome may not even matter they should keep -- matters much because Scott Mitchell president of the Mitchell research and communications joins us right now.
Because it's been it's not a lot of times they talk about South Carolina say -- went South Carolina wins the nomination but not always Michigan.
Well I think that's very true by the way -- Scott Mitchell is a great quarterback but I'm Steve Mitchell and it's great to be -- -- -- -- left hand -- in Michigan over the last.
As well on that good idea and I no no problem that -- No problem at all if you look back historically over the past forty years the Republican candidate that's one and a contested.
Type of the primary or caucus or convention situation.
Has only gone on to win the actual nomination three out of six times.
So it is a mixed bag and in fact.
The last couple of times the candidate that won Michigan did not go on to win the nomination as we know four years ago Mitt Romney won here.
By about 9% over John McCain.
He did not become the eventual.
Nominee twelve years ago John McCain.
Was the guy that was the winner he beat George W.
Bush of course bush became the nominee.
So Michigan is a mixed bag.
Politically in terms of who's going to win and who's ultimately going to be the nominee.
The polls are very -- -- whether it's the ones that you're doing Steve and towards the ones -- other organizations are doing.
But a lot of people are gonna talk tonight about the chronicle of momentum that comes at a Michigan it sounds like you're saying be careful before you get carried away with that.
Even though and I wonder if this change your thinking out of at all Romney was basically raised in in Michigan how much does that matter.
Actually it does matter we asked that question on one of our surveys.
Are you more or less likely to vote firsts.
For Mitt Romney based on the fact that he was born in Michigan and graduated from high school here.
And in fact a quarter of the voters want out of four said it made them more likely to vote for him and among those voters who said that.
He was winning by forty points.
59 to nineteen.
You take all the other people combine the 50% said it didn't make a difference and the 25%.
Said make him more like they're less likely to vote form.
And he was losing.
By eleven points among those voters so if he wins in a large part his hometown roots here in Michigan will have -- I think an important factor.
But what did we -- even if he wins.
In the state and it's only by a small margin because of because what looks like that -- one -- the bay but if he wins.
Or if he loses what have we learned about Mitt Romney from this Michigan race in santorum's god especially on the social issues way to the -- and Romney's tried to prove these more conservative than Santorum which is difficult to do what we learned that might apply to the rest of the REIS.
Well I think what you're seeing is.
Santorum is really trying to stake himself out as they're the true social conservative.
And because Romney doesn't want to go there Romney doesn't wanna try to be more conservative on -- social issues and can't be quite frankly.
He is trying to stress the fiscal issues and when you take a look at an overlay of their conservative voters.
Most conservative voters are both fiscal and social conservatives so Romney is saying -- that left side -- your brain.
Use that part that thinks about the economy.
In the fiscal conservatism.
Don't use that right side -- your brain.
It's thinking about the social issues he was able to do that and move back into the lead -- over the weekend.
There was a huge push by by by Santorum.
On the on the social issues in that.
Move them back over toward Santorum.
And then things sort of come down yesterday so.
At the end of that we had we -- running up 1% over.
Santorum.
Today we had Santorum up two points.
Yesterday so pretty logical it's it's really like that NASCAR race you're attacking about earlier these guys are very very close and I could -- -- -- -- the wire.
Or somebody could pull out.
In just zoom ahead it's a gorgeous day here in Michigan today and sun is -- and not a cloud in the sky.
Right now and that -- generate a larger turnout turnout and we think might happen.
Not from Michigan our thanks for the great Wolverine Tom Brady for joining us now Steve Mitchell thank you Steve think you covered -- I can't remember -- have a great day.
