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Cumberland Advisors CIO David Kotok on how the markets could react to a Greek deal and the U.S. economy.
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Holding pattern meantime when you talk about the markets -- what else is new -- is talking about that.
Greek leaders have now postponed -- decision to accept strict reforms in return for a massive bailout another massive bailout.
At our next guest says if a Greek deal does get done.
The markets -- celebrate.
But doesn't though from Cumberland advisors we do a -- If you have an officer with us right now you probably think it village -- David.
Well I.
I think so because they're Bacchus in the wall.
They have debt its maturing.
They don't have cash they can only get the cash if they make a deal.
If they make a deal and there's -- worked out.
They'll get funded they'll be no defaults.
If they don't there will be defaults and if it's not orderly and that would be disorderly.
We could have some difficulty in markets markets won't like -- Think about it in terms of the current set up to the markets I know as we said were down a little bit today.
Nothing crazy but were up a lot lately the -- of the four year high the nasdaq's an eleven year high in in the markets mean going crazy here lately.
And you know this could be the I guess the old excuse to sell it doesn't work out.
Well it could be an excuse to sell we've known about it there's no news here that's a surprise.
The best surprise -- what you talked about in the energy sector that you you created a fox biz ratio.
Gasoline for box hot dogs big box you've got a ratio of consumption congratulations a terrific.
Credit -- -- it's old news.
What do you think of the economy overall -- talk about gasoline and and how much.
You know people are consuming -- I think.
What do you think of the economy overall coming off that Friday jobs report which quite frankly look pretty good all things.
Considered and if we can figure this deal Latin Europe.
-- what we're off to the race is completely or what.
It looks pretty good you know a slow steady recovery.
Is creating about two million new private sector jobs.
The same recovery is shedding about a half a million so far.
Government sector jobs to have an -- -- issue in that the employment reports getting better right slowly.
But -- -- getting better.
Inflation is low interest rates are low that's not such a bad picture I don't know why there's so much gloom and doom.
Does not a bad picture -- all one of the things we talk about though is how markets look in the run up.
To a presidential election and how that's the backdrop this year and you know you get guess we've had plenty of them to come on what -- -- say you've really got to keep a close eye on the stock market.
You know as you get closer to the election over the summer into the early fall.
Does it concern if that was your theory should it concern you would all that we've run up so much so -- early in the year.
Well they -- as long as.
-- interest rates stay very low.
Which looks to be the case for another year to.
And maybe longer.
And as long as the economic recovery.
Looks to be steady and gradually accelerating bright that politics can debate all they want but the fact of the matter is -- -- driven by the economics.
Want -- -- -- -- -- now or or shouldn't the Fed do less in terms of you know buying bonds quantitative easing just because the economy looks better in the jobs report the last home we -- was pretty strong.
Well it's a good debate and you see some fed spokespeople saying we should slow down other saying something else but the bottom line is the consensus is that -- Bernanke's got votes.
And the vote -- the majority the FOMC.
And the FOMC is committed to a policy and they've made it very clear so -- a year and a half away before the election results create either the reappointment of Bernanke.
Or the replacement.
And dealing with -- right different Federal Reserve we got a lot of time in which the Fed is very predictable.
Well that's actually a very good point as well as they've made themselves predictable and political transparent data -- -- from Cumberland.
