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Professor Robert Shiller on the recent Case-Shiller report and his outlook for the housing sector.
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Home prices continued to tumble S&P case Shiller twenty city home price index.
-- three point 7%.
In November from a year ago down at one point 3% from the previous month but again worse than expected and it's -- bid.
Price declines are picking up -- -- here.
We're always happy to have the Shiller and case -- the co author of the index from Yale professor Robert Shiller hello sir thank you very much as always for coming on.
You've had time to analyze this we -- -- report so what should people take away from and another drop in home prices.
Yeah that's another drop -- it was below expectations so it's not looking great.
But there are positive signs so you know other things happen at the same time he said that last time you're here I think I am a bit more positive.
-- -- -- about it at all thought they NAHB housing market index is up.
Is up rather sharply.
Consumer confidence is up.
Both Michigan and conference board so that there are positive signs part of this decline that we've -- is just the seasonal -- this is the slow season right now for housing.
Next spring you know.
We could see price increases.
I'm export present today when it was time that it was up but it wasn't.
But has been out there for months now and and it's it's pattern.
-- -- and it's not anything clear are you started.
Concede though more foreclosures come on the market that the banks are -- I'm really beginning to finally work through a lot of this on foreclosure inventory real estate.
Is that put -- on price since.
Well if you look at realty tax -- that there isn't anything really dramatic happening with foreclosures.
The thing that strikes -- -- Is inventory of unsold homes is is -- -- the National Association of Realtors is.
Down -- about six months -- that's another positive sign.
And ago and try to kind of dig into this -- to see if we can or what people to take away from.
The fact that you are a little bit more and also -- -- but more -- upbeat than you've been and you can you see what the that that translates -- some sort of housing hate the -- turn around because that's really getting ahead of ourselves probably -- in the spring we're talking about.
All right we're finally getting better.
Well I'm not that six -- that.
-- -- We're still down at at a record low -- intends to do it in real terms were 6% below where we were in 2009 was.
Looked like from the looks like a bottom then because the ARA was giving -- a tax credit for first time homebuyers with a new president everything is looking up confidence is going up.
And it fizzled that time so you know we're kind of like in that situation again but but that's -- -- -- nothing more dramatic than that.
Let's talk about psychology really quickly the Federal Reserve comes out and says.
We're gonna keep interest rates are short term rates essentially zero until the end of 24 -- that make people wait possession right that's right.
That that the real question is.
Is there any urgency he did you know to get into the market -- -- -- say affordability is great well it is great prices are down and interest rates are down.
But you.
They couldn't even be -- next year may indeed he is he there and three or five years maybe even better.
And that there isn't any clear reason to think that either interest rates are gonna go out.
Or that help home prices are gonna go up.
So that a mistake by the way from the -- -- you'd like the idea of them becoming more and more.
Transparent and -- the idea of telegraphing their -- of.
As long as it moves are.
Expansionary then it it who probably has a better affect -- -- if they talk about them.
And transparency did see where this is America -- having the Fed that.
Tells us what they're thinking that seems appropriate book what would you buy house right now be shopping for.
I'm not shopping.
Would you not if Fy oh definitely if I were in a position where -- had a family young family went to settle down.
Definitely I mean it's it's it's an affordable time it could go down mar.
I have to say that because we've been going down for five -- but.
Not I wouldn't go in as an investor now but -- -- enough I -- house they do it.
It's my interest and that's good thank you -- -- on educating them to a fear place in Connecticut are thank you gotten past my investors now don't we actually -- drag got a really cheap price in enough oil after prices have -- Little too much information at I think Bob thank you -- out of -- Eller.
CF universe.
