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Sri Rama, Thomson Reuters quantitative research analyst, on how he makes his earnings predictions, and his take on recent outlooks diminishing.
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-- and to the gas trio Robin is senior research analyst at Thomson Reuters in the third quarter his analysis correctly predicted the surprise direction and eight.
Of the ten stocks in -- that would be an 800.
Average of baseball because that's that's extraordinary -- could if you could make money with us.
You have hits you have mrs.
first off how do you how do you decide who's that it -- mess so we actually use this Tomlin Smart estimate to help us predict we use what is down nine Smart estimate OK so that's a -- true that you've come up with you'll know about the consensus estimate it's the commonly used him industry.
It's just the average of all estimates for oil analysts available.
The smartest -- -- -- more week on the better analysts and will read in the more recent estimates to come up with the smartest and you can compare that to -- consensus.
And say -- if the Smart estimate is higher than the consensus.
Chances are that that's the consensus to move higher or the company will be worked eight out of ten times -- -- -- do you agree with this latest assessment where most analysts have.
Basically cut their forecasts and half for S&P companies yes we have seen revisions downgrades pretty dramatically in October the S&P 500 at a 15% growth period.
For the awful for -- Now that proceeds of seven point 6% so it is actually a half.
-- analysts that are the real risks out there already is blowing apart so that we are surprised to the upside so it did they aren't just doing the -- that it's based on fundamentals that they're actually done their research.
And what Stalin dozens of a few feet -- -- It says which on which of these analysts with the best analysts and we want to listen to those analysts more than just -- -- let's not hold out on our viewers who want to know what stocks are you are gonna be hits.
Delta and Pulte Homes Japanese airlines stark and a housing stock is listed as insured after the airline stocks B actually see delta doing pretty well.
Do you weather was great in the fourth quarter we didn't see too many disruptions to that that's great.
And at the best analysts actually have estimates of higher than consensus.
The baggage -- -- -- baggage fees and I to make a lot of money off that.
And did managing their capacity pretty -- -- -- halting home so I mean for home prices have been coming -- there's some good news about the home prices have been coming down an awfully there has been some good news but to -- to that BO BC that you know we we actually did a study and he killed CO -- sales NBC -- the best performing since pursue -- companies are actually the discounters and the luxury.
So yeah it's surprising that you see the Nazi doing so well and maybe that's transferring -- -- the luxury homes to which is what.
Parties that if it's of interest so let's move on to in this is where out -- -- downside come so we see downsides with -- surprisingly.
The huge Christmas season -- and it did and -- an element of that Internet and instead.
That's but that's not the issue that the -- the margins.
Ought to send the selling the Kindle and the fired at visas thin margins and sometimes taking a loss on -- so -- and that's -- by two and a half of that base.
And and that's the reason why did their margins are coming down tremendously.
In our hustle (%expletive) Christmas -- -- Amazon for pretty much everything.
And my wife insists on using it because of the free shipping.
And I'm right but it's exactly did take the cost of that shipping so you would expect the company announced that AT&T does this have anything to do their three billion dollar kill -- that they had debate because it couldn't get T-Mobile so -- -- -- -- I think it's four billion dollars or -- we had everything if that is right it's not only a cash it's a lot of other things accidentally and and it beyond gonna take -- from -- but that's the one time at expense.
So that's not too troublesome if in the but they don't get all of that T-Mobile space that I think we're not he's -- And beaches by the can be spending a lot of money on this point to that spending a lot of capital expenditure to build out that band -- And they also losing money on the Smartphones that the selling auditing apple is selling fantastic -- And each one to ask you taking huge subsidy on -- -- communities apple for each of those Smartphones that they -- so that's gonna hit their earnings this quarter so.
Despite than selling fantastic -- Smartphones -- gonna take a loss this quarter this isn't really fascinating.
Way to look at the earnings season in the different companies -- -- thanks so much trade about eight out of ten times that I was right congratulations and thank you appreciate having you know.
Well the number is.
