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Oliver Pursche, Gary Goldberg Financial Services president, on investing in 2012, and his predictions for economic growth in the new year.
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Company everybody.
Or are you feeling optimistic.
About 2012.
If you are you're -- good company.
Right along with Oliver pursche if you to give investment -- the last time it was on -- show.
You wouldn't make money Oliver is back so let's start with kind of a general market sense are you life filling -- bullish about to -- Well we've been quite bullish -- -- fact when I was on -- Fox Business news last August -- one of the few people talking about look we don't see a recession coming to the United States in the fourth quarter we expect strong corporate earnings.
We think at the same thing is gonna hold true at least for the first half of 2012.
With a relatively strong corporate earnings and a good economic background work generally speaking things continue to improve gradually Cheryl.
Let's go through your fun because I think that.
-- -- government managers come on the fund's performance latest makes it turned out gonna have a lot of energy you know the -- so I am an Amazon etiquette on his -- defensive beta fun it is down -- 3% over the -- Was a piece of that because of that bullishness in the fall when we did have the markets.
And -- action when the pond but.
Over the last and -- actually.
If -- stride on your timing most of the downturn came in July August and early September as a result of our commodity exposure.
Which really got hammered hard in that summer and we didn't believe that the fundamentals justify that -- -- sell off so we decide to hold our position.
And that by the way is what helped -- to turnaround in the fourth quarter of the fund went commodity stabilized and our sort of driving markets back up with oil over a hundred -- barrel again.
-- -- -- -- -- -- you -- IBM apple cats got some of the big names let me talk about and sought the QE in November 14.
A couple of names that you picked actually did move higher hence our viewers for the made money that -- listen to give evidence given -- -- point that out.
But you'll likely couple things like International Paper -- dollar tree both of those stocks are moving higher do you still like both of these names at ten and 15% respect.
Absolutely yes we think that their business model continues to be fundamentally strong what we look for -- within the GMT defensive beta -- companies that are growing progressively internationally.
Have a very strong balance sheet when possible paid dividends and most importantly.
We think those are the winners and windows or trade those companies are trading at a multiple below market average steps attractive enough holds true for dollar tree and IPR.
Our mex dollar tree on a valuation perspective and consumer side maybe it just a little bit of our industry to consumers beside you -- to get to be so -- you like this one the stock up over the last 52 weeks about 40%.
You're not concerned about the regulatory environment for for banking for consumer credit consumer protection bureau -- that -- you with Visa well.
That it's it is a worry but it's less of a -- with the business like -- seven it would be with a business like a mainstream bank whether to Citigroup or Bank of America let's say.
Because support do what our perspective Cheryl is -- ask the US economy continues to improve.
Unemployment continues to come down slightly and consumer sentiment improves dip Americans gonna go back out shopping.
We certainly saw that over the holiday season and that should help companies like Visa.
You -- they admit it bad -- we got 3 PM eastern time that that that have called us talking back consumer credit -- November job biggest jump since 200930.
Of people are charging.
They're gonna use their -- that's UV saw American Express MasterCard all right Oliver gonna have -- viewed as a few minutes.
