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Stifel Nicolaus Portfolio Manager Chad Morganlander on the economy’s outlook and how it will affect the Presidential election.
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Money manager Chad -- -- who says -- these strong numbers do keep up the president may well have Republicans.
In deep deep trouble.
And makes up for this trend.
-- the trend is a glacial trends in the right direction and this and improved.
-- within the employment force as well as on the manufacturing front.
Albeit we're still coming down from a very very horrible levels.
And you know that could switch any move the pendulum slightly in his favor but keep in mind.
He's got a long way to go over the next ten months to -- sued to get to it to the finish line.
You know there -- this is some economists who were saying I don't know Revere in this camp jet that you know we're not.
It is not inconceivable we could actually get the unemployment rate lower -- that it was what he took office that would the big drop we -- when the last month.
You considered -- like that you get there I think that's a -- myself.
But the administration -- -- a back pocket theory.
That if people are seeing 910 months of a steady job growth on top of its -- months or something we've seen thus far.
It doesn't have to be -- it just have to be heading in the right direction.
What he -- well I think voters are gonna give this this a Bronx cheer this economic vitality story that -- that.
That the White House is putting forth.
Keep in mind the underemployment rate is fifteen point 3%.
The unemployment rate yes is eight point 6%.
But when you look at the numbers.
Yeah had roughly 700000.
People drop at a low labor the F saying -- -- really stings your tells its debt.
Well well you know where you know you have ten months left the pay and they have to make up one point five million.
A private sector jobs in ten -- Coming to you -- -- we don't integrated.
I don't think they have to do that -- my latest crackpot -- of this display on -- and unity expert remember I play one on TV.
Is that they're going to try to say.
Look at us look at what we've come back from you do you remember this it's certainly not great now but it's better than that.
Well let you know the underemployment rate being at fifteen point 3%.
And you know look that the numbers -- the math public networks works out so I don't think that you could you could you can trick the voter.
Into believing that now it is the pendulum on the economy has shifted private sector.
Had started to pick up a bit here credit creation on a on the on the small business a large business site is happening.
But you still have a GDP number and our expectations.
Of one to 2% for for next year -- -- are actually this year 2012.
You really need to see GDP accelerate to four to 6%.
For him to really remember that.
A lot of time is is June -- -- the people's memory backwards rented they're taking.
Whenever they -- November there -- actually in the mindset of June.
-- -- -- -- -- Exactly -- so.
You know I eat -- at the time is running out here but with that said you could see that that the rhetoric will pick up that look the employment numbers are improving.
But -- hit those numbers are still of the lot higher.
Then they need to be so continuing claims numbers have to be at 300000 not 375.
And the initial claims numbers also have to come -- considerably all right we'll -- -- monitored carefully Chad thank you good senior yeah.
Thank you.
