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KBW Head of Washington Research Brian Gardner on Wall Street's opinion on who should lead the nation.
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And Green again what this box business -- it was a photo finish that came down to eight the votes but Mitt Romney.
The candidate many see is business friendly squeaked by Rick Santorum to win Iowa Caucuses.
Now it's on a New Hampshire and Wall Street has strong opinions about who should lead the nation as the next president joining me now for the nation's capital KBW.
Kind of Washington Coach Brian gardener.
Is Mitt Romney the candidate that Wall Street wants to see what.
Well if you look at the fundraising numbers -- -- think yes.
Wall Street has donated more to Romney's campaign.
Than any of the Republicans.
He is in some ways a creature of Wall Street having come out of -- capital he speaks their language he speaks the language of corporate finance.
And so I think there's a familiarity factor -- comfort factor so Wall Street likes Mitt Romney.
If they if they awarded -- Mitt Romney against President Obama what do you think the chances are that Wall Street we get behind Mitt Romney and I mean not just what their votes but financially.
Behind Mitt Romney.
It'll be split because one thing Wall Street does is hedge.
They will hedge their bets and as we get closer to the election if it looks like the president is heading for reelection.
The the -- -- community various parts of it will want to make sure that they are seen to be in favor with the the second term of an Obama administration.
If the polls are showing and there's a sense that Romney is going to defeat Obama I think you'll definitely see Wall Street money flood towards towards.
Mitt Romney slug towards the candidate but what about returns on the markets as we get closer and closer to November.
If indeed the GOP candidates -- -- we have to say here but it's very -- if that GOP candidate is seen as Wall Street friendly in business friendly.
Do you think the markets will -- act to that candidate ahead of the November election.
Well it's interesting as the markets are relatively calm through the first part of a presidential year as we get into the summer that's when you start to see swings.
In years where -- incumbent wins the market really rallies the summer before the election and then falls off afterwards.
-- -- for some sorry if -- their challengers going to win the market rallies during the summer and then falls off as we get closer to election.
Conversely.
In years that that that the incumbent wins the market does quite poorly during the summer and and rallies.
During the yet during the fall months I think there again it's a familiarity factor we've talked a lot about over the last few months.
About the the certainty in the markets who in the regulatory context but there's also -- familiarity no certainty within the electoral context -- -- the if go ahead at our.
-- -- if the markets see a continuity even if they don't like the candidate but they know what they're getting I think they they actually like -- to win.
OK what Rick Santorum US somewhat of a surprise here in the Iowa Caucuses again it is early.
But isn't -- more about Pennsylvania and he's more about.
A manufacturer type of but candidate kind of the anti Wall Street if you well is that concern for Wall Street investors if Rick Santorum picks up momentum here.
It it may be I don't think Wall Street knows exactly what to make of Santorum yet as you noted he flew -- below the radar.
But that it's going to change the Romney campaign is going to spend a lot of time and effort.
On defining Rick Santorum at looking at his record he was in congress for several terms of both the senate in the house he has a voting record and that's going to come out.
On the flip side though Romney has not gotten a lot of scrutiny either of the candidates were fighting among themselves to be the anti Romney.
That fight is over.
The remaining candidates are never to turn on Mitt Romney.
And so there's going to be a -- kind of -- an effort to define him as the establishment this is an anti establishment election.
Anti establishment message worked in Iowa that's what took Gingrich down from its highs in the polls.
And candidates are now going to try and use it on Romney we start to see it last night.
Somebody mentioned.
Romney is being -- Wall Street insider.
Newt Gingrich called him a moderate -- -- Massachusetts moderate and word very dangerous Republican circles that suggests establishment.
And so I think you're going to see this establishment anti establishment battle going on over the next few weeks Brian gardener can be getting -- -- Washington research thank you Brian.
