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-- on Iran says it will testify at a long range missiles and the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow's spot of its ten days of what -- war games will that move certainly likely to stoke already heightened tensions between western powers and Iran over its threat to -- oil shipments through the strategic passageway for the world's oil supply.
Joining me now from Washington to discuss whether we are heading for a showdown with a Ron and the other latest developments in the region is up to -- -- Farris.
The Fox News Middle East and affairs analyst and by the way -- for the book the coming revolution struggle for freedom.
In the Middle East.
But -- thank you so much for joining us tonight.
How close -- -- to actually having an armed confrontation with Iran.
I should really depends on what the Iran in leadership is preparing I think they're doing brinkmanship there -- doing in all what they can't -- push us to make a concession.
And not engage in the sanction of the fear the most.
But this is a very risky business because they are maneuvering they are sending their units.
And they're getting very close and the other says is very firm in terms if day IE the Iranians.
Will stop a ship or engagement issued that would be at that will be that for the and what what happened then if we do some.
Only a conflict of some sort some sort of action takes place could -- very quickly escalate.
What it would escalate because the -- and -- that no would have to do to throw everything they have and my concern is not just there a navy then navy is not match at all to the united states -- even to the Arab -- but the Vick could engage in terrorist actions and activities not just in the in the gulf but in Saudi Arabia and Iraq that's the missing.
A link up the picture as a whole.
Does this what they call it Saber rattling but it could be more than map but does this show that the economic sanctions -- -- or is it really.
The sanctions on that oil exports is the one that could really let them.
It's a very good question actually if the you know the most important thing is if we -- at their oil imports if we stop.
And them from getting cash this is where they gonna Begin now you know I attacking our interest here in -- but.
With the big picture basically of how far we will go and toppling the regime because if you don't go as far as partnering for example.
With the opposition in Iran at the regime would absorb that the end of the day.
Interest thing I -- -- it also -- talk about what's going on in Syria it seem like the protests have died down but then we have the Arab league of monitors come in.
Which I think emboldened.
A lot of these protesters in Syria but we've -- -- the same response from the Syrian government just shooting their own citizens what do you make of the US response or lack thereof so far.
-- actually for -- to -- the.
Regime knows that at this point in time there is no you asked strategic action -- is that what the case in Libya and the reason why it out convinced that this would be the case.
Because we are out of Iraq if we look at the map -- understand.
That by quick -- Iraq so fast the Iran onions -- bench facing Iraq and by doing so.
-- Lincoln Appleby is Syrian regime in supplying asset with support and therefore I think there's not ready for strategic -- so we -- -- in the last six to seven months.
And bringing down asset with the Turks with the Arab moderates now that we -- out of Iraq the Iraqis are closer to him.
Then us well the audience mostly concerned because overseas Syria is that big ally of those -- regime change there could isolate Iran evil more.
It was first -- -- cut them off from their strategic ally in Lebanon Hezbollah -- and once they would lose Hezbollah that would be isolated in the region that's the equation so we had an interest and we have an interest and bringing down asset Iraqis isolating asset that would give us an advantage over the Iranian regime over what's happening now in the gulf and over Hezbollah as well.
You also argue that Iraq Iran is a winning the strategy game in the Middle East what do you mean by that -- how come.
Well first -- look at the big picture we have not really stopped there process of reducing not just the bomb but the long range missiles they are producing -- more of those but more important.
-- the fact that they have penetrated Iraq they have now linked up with the -- regime with Hezbollah.
There I'm now very active in Easton area -- threaten our Baja ran into our active in northern Yemen.
And that we are look at -- Iran they are active in Africa they have signed an agreement with -- Hugo -- of the Iran regime of today is much stronger much more determined than for five years ago.
So do you think the United States is doing enough.
With regard to Iran to let them know that obviously -- we're keeping a close eye on them I mean there's only so much you can do before you come to actually come to conflict.
That is correct but -- are things that you can do before you get too good to -- conflict and more than what we're doing right now what we're doing right now are sanctions sanctions are good -- -- giving results.
What we can do in the ultimate -- issue -- to go to military action but in between there's partnership with civilian.
Uprising in Iran we missed evolved in June of 2009 -- one point five million people where on the streets of Tehran that could have changed everything we missed that unfortunately.
Very quickly -- one question about Afghanistan.
We understand the Obama administration is considering.
Senior Taliban official to Afghan custody.
It's kind of a long shot -- if you like to improve the prospects of a peace deal in Afghanistan with the Taliban.
Is this a strategy that's a solid do you think -- is at risk.
I think it's extremely risky in knowing what the party -- want and their strategy I mean it to release detainees is not something I haven't been done in history.
That's not the issue the issue is when we release them it should come after an agreement with the -- band that they have begun.
Therefore not before otherwise.
The body -- and I think that there are strong -- will keep doing this until we get out of Afghanistan without concessions so many issues to discuss sorted out of time doctor we Li I will leave the -- thank you so much for joining us tonight really appreciate it.
Thank you have to know you saying to you.
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