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A moment but you know the month of November was pretty god for home purchases sales up 4% but the bigger headline from that restatement of all the old data is that.
The National Association of Realtors overstated.
More than three million sales since the three million -- -- he'll -- meltdown self.
How about that without the stock market is down a little defect let's bring -- -- ball at the start things off this hour he's the chief equity strategist.
At yeah herself.
-- Kazakhstan but what.
The BI did this housing data that we report on it sometimes moves the market.
Was basically a bunch of nonsense for four years.
Unsettling isn't a little bit to look back and say what's the point reporting on and reacting to all these numbers from the government everywhere else that we that we look at.
Exactly Connell well when you get numbers from the government from trade organizations.
You really expect the numbers to be good and then -- also hope that they're not gonna lead to dramatically revised.
But they -- where we've come to get used to that from government data where you typically get revisions.
I remember Khartoum for The New Yorker that said because a revised government data it was decided that the Yankees and not the Dodgers won last year's World Series.
So sometimes you just have to live with and it.
Sometimes you just have to live with that well.
I guess because that's we're living with right now is -- a market that a lot of people have a tough time.
Figuring out and I want to spend a few minutes talking about next year mean we always do these end of the year segments -- people look back on how they -- this year and then try to.
Forecast what we're gonna see next year we had was at Saunders on this week we had Tony Dwyer this week -- -- was optimistic.
Was optimistic as well with.
I don't know that you would put a check of the pessimistic column for yourself but if you look at history and I know you did this and you look back.
At the presidential cycle and next year being.
Presidential election year.
It might not be if history repeats itself a very good year for stocks not right.
You're absolutely right.
That usually would you think about the four year presidential cycle a lot of it has to do with -- investor psychology.
The party in power wants to stay in power so they're going to stimulate the economy in year three so -- bears fruit in your four and they get reelected.
Well investors are like chiropractor first graders playing musical chairs are always trying to out anticipate the other they will buy in in the third year in anticipation of the stimulus.
Coming to fruition in your four.
But if we really don't have much stimulus out there if the investors are saying there's not a lot to be excited about in year three or year for more than history basically says if the return has been eight and a half percent or less and this is going back to 1927.
Then -- percent change in year four has been a decline.
Of 10% and the market has fallen in five of six observations so.
The history obviously being a -- -- never gospel yeah does not point to a very favorable.
If the based on this lack of stimulus.
We've had this discussion over -- over Sam I think over the years as you've been on about and you mentioned -- history's not.
Gospel by any stretch because I'm always skeptical of these things because looked -- in isolation they don't account for the fact that this time it's really different every time.
That this year we're dealing with things that maybe we didn't deal with.
I'm in the past that Europe is a factor now and it wasn't then that you know -- a million different things or different.
As opposed to the same so how do you look at next year even though obviously we haven't had a very good year for stocks that -- SP 500.
Even -- doubts positive for the year the SP 500 still doubt how do you look at next year.
Well you're right about history but then again.
Every time is different -- the last time -- 62 that we were facing nuclear Armageddon or 74 cents an OPEC shut down etc.
You have to take that with a grain of salt but looking at fundamentals for next year we think we're gonna see about an 8% increase in earnings.
And that's S&P capital IQ reporting consensus numbers.
Apply a very reasonable thirteen to fourteen piece.
And that would bring us to a target of around 35013.
Fifteen to 14100.
On the S&P 500.
We don't think we're gonna see recession albeit probably suffer through another half speed economic recovery.
And from the technical perspectives.
We do think that we are in -- favorable cyclical period of the market between now and sometime in the second quarter of 2012.
All right -- so maybe we will break.
From history who -- but then anybody's guess is as good as the next person at this point way things have been going but we always thank you for coming on log on against -- -- thanks my pleasure potential --
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