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KBW Head of Washington Research Brain Gardner explains why he is discouraged about a payroll tax deal.
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We.
Begin with this Fox Business alert everybody 22 days and counting the deadline gets closer and both parties are still very far apart at this hour.
The senate has rejected Democrat and Republican proposals to extend the payroll tax cut the fate of the financial security of millions of Americans.
Is at risk and my next guest is now only sixty to 65% -- -- even gonna get an agreement Brian gardener KBW head of Washington research.
Joins me now Brian you have scaled back their expectations of a deal and that happened with in the last 24 hours why.
Because there's there's no past no clear path or at least the let me back up the path is a less clear that had been of getting to a deal I I think going into this week.
Assume that there'd be a lot of drama this is exceeding our expectations for drama.
And the parties given the president's speech in Kansas the of the -- the party that.
Are digging themselves in for a longer fight so we're we're taking our our chances that -- deal gets done and a little bit.
-- O'Brien I'm looking at a market that is rejoicing a lot of that is Europe right now but it seems the markets have not yet reacted.
-- to concern that this could not -- why do you think that is.
No I think coming out of -- Thanksgiving.
Even with the failure of the super committee I think most investors.
Just assume that it's in everybody's political interest to pass a -- at -- payroll tax extension.
And I think at the end of the -- it probably will.
So it that that right now is the assumption by Wall Street but I think -- as we getting to next week and we get through the week if there's no deal.
I think it's gonna start to get some more attention by investors.
Well I -- EST that's gonna go to these provisions and if you look at the provisions that expire on December 31 fees -- very.
Market related very money driven that could have a dire of -- on on our viewers and in particular.
The AMT patch that's a big issue right -- that's a 75 billion dollar issue and -- also the unemployment benefit extension fifty billion dollars those two things right there that's consumer spending.
To -- Brian that tells me that if we do not get an extension we do not get a deal -- that the economy is gonna take another big hit in January by.
I agree with you especially on the payroll tax and unemployment benefits and -- not so much.
Because that is a filing issue that can be done later in 2012 is longs is done before people file their taxes by the deadline April.
That's not the same deadline as the other two issues that we're dealing with.
And I but I agree with you on unemployment and payroll tax holiday.
If they are not extended you you do see kind of some pressure on consumers probably -- especially at the lower end after the holiday.
-- the last question on the issue of jobs house speaker John -- coming out.
He wants to -- -- -- the Republicans want to reinsert the Keystone Pipeline.
And and that would be -- jobs positive if that pipeline remember the president wants to delay any decision -- 2000 at thirteen.
John Boehner says no let's put in their now get up high blood -- would that be a boost for the economy.
If that pipeline provision gets into this payroll tax extension -- and then passes.
All over the longer term is no doubt I I wouldn't categorize that program -- that project is shovel ready so it's not going to.
Have an immediate impact in the next six months but it's a very positive impact longer term.
And I think after the election what will see it approved by the White House.
But certainly push pushing off further -- does not help the economy in the short term Brian gardener had a Washington -- KB got it got -- breaking easy to get -- Brian thank you very.
