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Scott Wren of Wells Fargo Advisors on the future of the economy and where to put your money in today's market. .
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Peter thanks so much Peter Barnes well it's able markets keeping their eyes firmly on events in Europe both and Greece stand and Italy let's welcome -- Scott -- is senior equity strategist.
At Wells Fargo advisors.
All right Scott and asking you -- -- basis points on the Dow I would -- especially given that the strength that we see in the markets over the last couple weeks.
I thought -- have been down even more with this concern about Berlusconi may be stepping down a new government in Greece the -- holding okay here though.
You know I have to agree Chris -- I'm a little bit surprised with us some of the things that happened over the weekend that we aren't done quite a bit and as you said I mean really off these early October lows were still up.
They're really more than 14%.
After last week so.
You know -- suspend pretty good rally obviously and we're hanging in here pretty good despite the news coming out of Italy which.
You know is obviously.
Very very serious sin and you know died you know Greek I think Greece -- I think they're going to mandate that world will will be able to.
Kind of put Greece on the sidelines for a little while but -- this Italian situation.
It's not going to go away anytime soon nor is this entire -- debt sovereign crisis I mean we're gonna be revisiting this many times over the next few years.
I got -- the crisis right have to be offset by a better looking economic picture nothing to get excited about let me be clear.
Here in the United States -- we're coming off a week of some pretty decent.
Economic numbers so would you say that brings the likelihood of recession even less.
Improving -- odds of that happening.
You know I I do -- I think that you know we we have we thought there -- about a one in three chance of recession here in the states I think if we get any kind of band aid.
In Europe that that makes that.
Likelihood go down we've certainly had.
Two or three weeks of better than expected data here in the states so you know what I think's going to happen is you know we'll see one point 51 point 7% GDP for.
Next year you know -- hear it.
2% to -- nothing to write home about well below the trend but from my perspective.
You know I don't think everything we're doing says moderate growth.
Modest inflation modest earnings growth no recession itself is the probability zero obviously not but I I think I don't think we're gonna have a recession here in the states this European growth.
You know it's always you know minus 1% up 2% something like that -- we had a fight if if GDP contracted 5% in Europe.
You know that that's a different story I don't think that's going to happen now.
Scott since you don't believe we're gonna go into recession -- is deceiving the likelihood is not very high.
Bond guessing you like cyclicals here given now that way that they're priced in the fact that we expect growth even though you think it's moderate growth it's still -- -- be -- That's right Chris I think that.
Right now you're on your in the middle part portion of -- cycle people are concerned about a lot of things you know is is recovery sustainable.
How much is earnings going to slow things like that and obviously this Euro -- situation.
As well but from our perspective you're likely to start another leg up in this cyclical bull market.
May be very late this year or certainly in the first half of 2012.
So you know we are interest did and things like industrials materials are we are we massively overweight those sectors right now no -- carrying a more balanced approach after being overweight them for much of the last two and a half years but.
Looking ahead if you think that this -- what -- economic recovery is sustainable.
Those are the types of sectors you need to be looking at you know companies like that Danaher -- tight go.
Are -- Vodafone.
I mean those are all companies that are going to be able to take advantage.
Of this continuation of the global economic recovery so -- it's a little people are a little afraid right now but I think I think we're going to see.
See some better news here over the course of the next few months beautiful thank you Scott -- appreciated as always thank I.
