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Payden & Regal Economist Jeff Cleveland on the impact of small businesses and start-ups on job growth.
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Jobs report is giving another unclear picture over the strength of the US economy and recovery.
But the reports households survey is showing one bright spot after seeing the best rate of employment growth in five years.
And Jeff Cleveland's chief senior economist at Payton and Riegle says.
This is the real number investors and businesses should be keeping their eye on right now OK so if that's it.
What do you need to see to give you confidence likes of which stand Kraft was just talking.
About.
I think regain a little confidence month after month I think investors are really set up looking for recessionary type numbers we didn't see that.
In the October report.
But if you look at payroll report numbers you're just seen about a 100000 jobs per month.
If you look at the last three months in that household survey was you're -- about three -- -- one million jobs created.
And that's a huge boost and the question is is one survey picking up something.
That the other survey has not and I think it might be it's it's -- a difference -- Of the labor force that it might be picking up small or the new businesses that are starting up.
But Jeff we have to get real about this in order to get down just 8%.
That that's not that's still a huge unemployment -- still far too few people working -- -- we have to have 20025000.
Jobs a month.
That's how much we get we need to get in order to get down to 8% so we were nowhere near what we need to be to get back to normal.
That's right unfortunately people who want to hear but the the only solution here is is really time.
It's gonna take time and at a 100000 jobs per month or even 200000 as you point out.
Is not gonna bring the unemployment rate down quickly so -- -- -- out six or twelve months we still see -- half 9% on that unemployment rate.
But the bigger question I have is where those jobs and come from right right where they have not.
If not -- the housing market we still have this voluminous number of basically high school educated males in this nation who had gone into construction.
They need new positions and we just came from Silicon Valley where.
They're looking for software people they're looking for marketing how do we get those people ready for those kinds of jobs if the housing market is going to be slow to recover does not take.
Time.
It does it does -- -- takes time when you look at there are job openings when we look at the data.
We seen more job openings in the year ago but we still see unemployment rate high that tells you right there -- you have a mismatch in your skill level.
And that's a retraining -- -- time I'd like to think of it as a big puzzle you move in the piece is around it doesn't happen.
It doesn't happen overnight one thing they can help I think -- isn't new industries that we haven't.
Know for seen.
That pop up and come into existence well I thought today you know Groupon -- -- -- -- employed a lot of people in an industry we might not have known about a couple of years ago.
That's exactly right it's and it's -- is is in the data.
It's a young it started type businesses that drive ultimately job growth and we'll ultimately get that unemployment rate down.
The need to Foster an environment where that where that takes place.
-- Cleveland and well.
Of paid regal -- -- are we got to move on thank you so much for coming and have a great weekend bridge.
