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Credit Agricole Managing Director Mike Mayo on the Greek debt crisis’ potential impact on banks and economies around the world.
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Now back to a market that on this All Saints Day.
Looks absolutely analysts on Wall Street analysts might now is not all that surprised.
He's the author of exile Wall Street one analyst fight to save the big banks from themselves and -- They haven't.
-- happens why this willful part well the Greek referendum.
Puts at risk the entire Euro package.
And its top having Greece has some austerity measures and asking the people what they think it's kind of like me.
Asking my kids last night and Halloween whether they would eat the candy after -- -- wake up the next day.
Chances are real early yes is the operative has -- But chances are that the Greek population won't say yes so chance are you don't actually had a referendum.
You want to -- elections perhaps after the start of the year so good by year end rally.
OK so now all of a sudden we're surprised that the Greeks wouldn't accept paying half potato revenue in the -- and and that's not a big shock they've they've been wouldn't and likely this is why the referendum vote itself -- people.
Now do you have those same banks are told to take an even bigger haircut why should we put it all on the line -- our stocks tanked when we do.
So when -- Well the problem is bigger than just Greece itself by the middle list of ten items that are uncertainties.
And I just stop there -- Does the French government credit get downgraded.
Who supplies -- money to the European financial stability fine we'll be enough.
Will Italy restructure their economy enough there's somebody other questions -- but you know what's note.
In the last day or -- of MF global.
MF global went down the Jon Corzine for yet after.
The Europeans agreed on a new -- that's.
Very good point that's that we were just a step -- earlier today that that good deal didn't make -- but the dime's worth the difference here so.
This means that supposedly the smartest Goldman guys around and he was one of them on could make a bad -- There are a lot of other -- that's out there and I'm sure we're not familiar with.
Then play out the fear of a contagion that seems to be rampant how realist that.
What we don't know what we don't know.
Having said that you know that the one question is not how much direct exposure do you have to year -- down how much exposure you have to.
Other companies with a lot business in the years out savitch exposure do you have to MF global that's not going debt.
Break the system.
Are there other -- out there gonna global has grown jumps into the scheme of its its weight in bugs aren't -- it's not the end of the world there but.
What's the secondary and tertiary exposures to the Euro zone and MF global brought.
That question to the four but the bigger question which you bring up this how are we going to deal with the mountains of debt.
In mature economies and that includes United States but what it.
The message from this is that the Greeks don't want to bear the Madison and they -- then.
They dissent that seems inevitable now on.
If that is the case that Italy is teed up next and then we go one if -- kind of that finance government to another point.
While that's the whole goal is can you ring fence Greece and move on and what you think you can I don't listen to Greece is it's just we'll look.
You know my -- -- -- say we have a historian.
A strategist -- -- and there hardly ever on the same page they're all on the same page here saying that.
This resolution was dead on delivery it's so are they all on the same -- with respect to the future agrees not seeing -- war.
The Euro is in trouble what alternately either that.
The view is -- the Euro breaks up or you get united states of Europe.
-- -- similar type version here's what I think and that's your idea to -- behind I just see this whole -- fallen apart.
It's a club that was had had weird rules to Begin with and what subscribe to the same rules.
Even in diametrically opposed economies that didn't make sense on Paper is not making them lessons relevant.
So unless they change the rules -- Euro club and maybe say Germany possibly France most don't even fit.
Those rules then what.
You know the problems to some degree -- Bigger than the government's I mean -- -- huge debt burdens but we have that the United States also Euro or no -- still face the same conundrum.
Mature economies are slowing down in the United States last decade we had debt growing twice as fast technology it.
Globally and mature markets you've also ahead debt growing twice as fast of GDP for some period of time.
That's not sustainable and now it's time to pay the bill.
And they're not that's the problem.
It's going to take time that's the point are what you should have let your kids to signal candidate wanted to as a model go down -- a sugar high.
Mike thank you very very much -- mail in any.
