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-- on that chart.
Well we got some good news.
Got some bad news for housing this morning -- -- August case Shiller home price index showing some stability as prices edged slightly higher for the fifth straight month.
But the index declined three point 8% year over year -- winter approaches.
And there's a lot an -- for closures coming onto the market do you think prices are gonna be stabilizing.
We'll joining us now deal -- was an economist Stan Humphries that's a question stand do you think that prices will at some point stabilize because we're still wait and.
Yes so they definitely it did that report was a little bit weaker than I think a lot of economists expected.
On a seasonally adjusted basis actually come -- -- flap between July and August and the composite twenty.
Set of metros which wasn't that bad.
I think we -- -- -- definition -- is given how bad housing market has been the past few years.
But in terms of future expectations we do expect further weakness to enter into the housing market with a drumbeat of bad economic news.
We so we've we've got a new consumer confidence number come out today which is which is not good and consumer confidence does play into the housing market as it keeps people on the on the sidelines and keeps him from buying houses.
What's it -- five of the city's.
I mean they're the ups and downs but the worst five cities with the European declines to look the worst to me.
Minneapolis Portland Phoenix Atlanta Seattle so I mean we're talking about the -- hard hit areas.
I -- of Atlanta surprised at what's going on in the market.
Yeah Atlantis is seeing a lot of foreclosure activity continues to see see a lot of foreclosure activity in in it's a market where.
The -- the recession has been very long very hard for that for that metro an and really it's it has to do with.
Problems in the banking sector in Georgia and then that is cascaded into more foreclosures -- that a lot of measures have seen.
But of course is still not -- let -- hard hit it's not a target is most parts of Florida Phoenix Vegas and in part to California.
You know question -- Yes -- 100.
Focusing in on whether or not it's seasonality we should be focusing on whether it's foreclosures or whether it's the shadow inventory.
What is the barometer you would look at that would assess whether or not you think there's an upturn -- is it just jobs or.
What's gonna be the critical forecasting tool you gonna use to projected net eight an upturn at some point in the cycle.
Yes so that the critical elements in housing market right now -- 2 negative equity am an unemployment and -- negative equity is something that's gonna have to be.
Solved over a longer period of time it's not there's no quick fix for racing that much negative equities -- -- which is in trillion dollars.
Unemployment however is something that we can hopefully make some some faster.
Near term progress on.
A but we do need to start to see higher job growth numbers because that improves consumer confidence if people off of off the fence we've got twenty million households nationwide right now which are doubled up -- one another that means that there.
That they're compressed in in the smaller number of housing units we've got to get jobs growing ornament -- people took off about the economy.
In the mid day we move out of this houses in -- -- more housing units and that increases demand.
Has got to see that happen -- -- -- -- -- housing market for some and we think that we're gonna see further declines near term housing market.
And then once we've -- a definitive bottom which we think would come as early as next year.
We we think we're gonna see in most markets two to four years -- a pretty tepid real estate appreciation performance cause of that long overhang of negative equity.
Stan Humphries zillow chief economist and we hopefully things will turn around but up from what you're saying not so short -- -- got one and watering gardeners and thank you speak.
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