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What a Double-Dip Recession Looks Like

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  • Description

    FBN's Liz MacDonald breaks down how we know if we are in a recession.

  • Duration 2:59
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This transcript is automatically generated

-- park now is protesters are obviously upset about the state of the economy.

And we actually got up out of a split message on the economy today we're gonna spend a good part of the hour talking about it.

On the one hand retail sales drop but consumer confidence is down so as often happens -- -- Americans essentially saying one thing and doing another.

And even with that we keep hearing about another recession.

Being a possibility that's why this McDonnell was here this morning.

So how can we actually know especially get data like this how can we know if we are in a recovery or were in a recession.

We can't know until the of official arbiter the National Bureau of Economic Research calls -- -- And let's look at the NBER's track record.

And how it has that basically waited to call it recession in the past take a look at this kind of really interesting stuff Sega -- hear the 0709 recession and we just came out of was called in 2000 to have a look at -- 01 recession was actually called.

Months later and in 2003.

So that's about twenty months later and also in 1980.

The recession was finally called in 1980 once O'Connell.

It's not two consecutive quarters -- Negative GDP growth the NBER says no exit -- in what did they base and I as a significant decline in economic activity.

Stretching over summer months not assume that the the opinions of economists are all over the map on this or are they in terms of where we are right now.

And what we're gonna call this cover many months from now.

Yes absolutely you're seeing declaring -- of -- that we -- that double dip.

But you know we don't we won't know of the and to the NPR comes out officially calls that there's been controversy in the past two that the NBER got it wrong yeah for example in the bush at downturn -- 01.

There's kind of saying all of that debt that -- terrorists aren't under the Clinton administration -- third or fourth quarter saying you know the issue with does it feel like we're in at another downturn.

Sure just like Casey noted a collapse in confidence.

No company that's right but people are going out and and which is interesting because I don't know what this tells you.

They're good they're saying all -- -- things are a mess and I'm not confident on the economy but then you look at retail sales and a lot you'll gonna spending money buying a new car or something.

Yeah that's right and I plays something when you compare to the 808182.

Downturn.

We're 27 months into this recovery.

Under Reagan his 27 months of his recovery.

We saw a net seven point five million jobs created we -- weird certainly in a jobless recovery absolutely right to point that out.

And the GDP growth rate was stronger under Reagan vs what we're seeing now about two to three percentage points.

I'm not saying it's caused by this president that the lower price if this -- says that statisticians who.

Make these calls are not saying that just yet.

They're just comparing big Vista as statistics vs what happened back in a written under Reagan and what -- going on now we saw for example very high unemployment under Reagan.

North of 10% of and that's start to come down by the -- That's the -- picture the unemployment line there were looking at right now on our screen name kind of there is a connection there between the protests that message reporting on what you know whether you agree with what they're saying they're not and the unemployment -- to -- thank you lists.

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