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-- heard my opinion.
What the other question of the day where is the economy heading.
After the president confessed this week that we are worse off today than we were four years ago Democrats have been trying to put that comment in the proper context.
Here's the spend for D&C chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Anyone who looks at the economy knows we have come along way and now we began to turn the -- Turn the corner really try telling that to fourteen million people in this country who can't find a job.
And if my first guess -- -- the corner we turn leads directly to recession.
-- action time co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute joins us now.
It's great to see you act and are you sure.
Well I mean we're going into a new recession.
Well that's sounds exactly like what you've been saying to a lot of media all over the city right that there were headed into recession how bad how long.
Well any recession is -- I think that's the key so.
You wonder what kind of recovery was this we've actually been in a recovery for a couple of years but it's been so underwhelming.
Compared to the size of that session.
That everybody sitting around saying what are you talking about particularly unemployed people out of work right because they have not.
Seen anywhere near the amount of jobs gained as what was lost during the recession.
Here we go it so we're going from what I would describe as a underwhelming or even bad economy.
Into a new recession it's going to get a lot worse from here on all of -- basic.
Measure that you follow up a lot of that a different indicators you know you track this thing like nobody -- in in fact you've been able to successfully predict.
Are you you know past recessions which you know we look at when you look at said the track record of a lot of people out there -- -- not very accurate.
So what is your crystal ball tell you in terms of how serious this recession could be obviously all of them are bad -- I'm not here to say that anything different -- The people want to know and my gearing up for 2008 all over again.
We can't say that today OK but I can't rule it out either and I think that's the more important point.
-- -- in the best case scenario we have a mild recession.
In front of us which may be less -- a mild recession could be like 2001 or 199091.
Recession which was under a year.
Not as sharp as the last recession.
But what the the risk here it is it in the near term.
That we have some sort of shock negative shock it's the economy before the forward looking indicators Begin to recover they haven't started to recover yet.
So during that what what I would call a window of vulnerability.
If we get hit by another shock.
Then this could get very bad very quickly that is what happened in -- -- -- exactly what I was gonna say Lehman Brothers took a bad recession -- eight at ten time absolutely.
And this could happen again frankly I mean when you look at the banking sector how much stability do you see there I mean you have to look at all parts of the economy.
Is that our financial institutions working here.
Well in the states I think we've done some recovering since the last recession.
And now all eyes are on Europe and the stability of the banking system there which could easily in fact.
The rest of the world just the way in the in the US that infected the rest role very quickly and in 2008.
Everybody's eyes are a lot of eyes are on China and how much of slowdown are they going to have because they've been kind of holding up a lot of activity around the world than they are indeed slowing.
And what's interesting over there.
Is that unlike the last recession policy makers there are actually being restrictive they are putting on the brakes because they have so much inflation and in inside their works.
But on Friday we're gonna get the jobs number we've already -- seen ADP challenger gray.
And challenger gray numbers particularly concerning -- is a huge increase in firings.
What do you senior crystal ball for Friday.
I don't see a change in the trend we can't say we know what's going to happen actually Arafat is number but I think this trend of worse and -- jobs numbers is going to continue and we see no.
And in sight that's a key reason why we are going back into recession last spring.
-- of a 2011 was as good as it gets for jobs we're not gonna see that anytime soon the unemployment rate in a recession is when -- spike from here.
As is the budget deficit because of tax receipts will fall and expenditures will rise so what is already a difficult deficit is going to get worse.
But what about you say that you don't see any recovery in jobs at nine point 1% -- I mean if there's another recession it's gonna get -- tanner to.
Well over -- well I would Murti like rise to the women to double digits at all so.
That's consistent with a mild recession.
I can't say that there's going to be a shock I don't know if there's going to be a shock but if there is we have to watch out and and I think it's law works quicker.
And Ben Bernanke no -- an expert than Ben Bernanke at the -- reserve says hey we're not in recession yet He seems fairly confident asking congress.
Pump more money into the economy.
Is -- too upbeat.
You know in his position He has to say what he's saying if you look back at each of the past few recessions and I think if you look at all of them.
It would be very rare occasion where Fed Chairman set lower pointing -- recession when we're doing it they usually say and a half a year or a year later.
And so I wouldn't expect this time to be in either.
Aren't like thanks for your help today we really appreciate your time being forewarned is important.
Or Warren means for arm that's not my mom saw.
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