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Bob doll black rock's chief equity strategist and -- specific sectors to talk about -- ideas.
That's why we kept -- here -- you can get an idea of where you should be investing right now a lot of people are scared Bob.
You know right or wrong they just sit themselves flats don't know we went through the whole summer I'd rather be safe than sorry where should they be investing right now -- stock market.
My view is that we're gonna skate through with a -- -- economy but not a recession cut if that's the premise the people -- along willing to go along with.
I think you need some -- Calgary in the portfolio.
Technology is my favorite choice there in the comes lots of different form some semiconductor -- -- equipment stocks some more conservative software companies.
But then I think also needs some defense of growth in the political companies that are less dependent on the economy because it is slow growth.
Health here's my choice there so how one from each column you wrote -- You bring up some of the individual names -- -- editorials war we do that have a question how to follow up churn out sectors sorry.
-- those I look it was some of the portfolios that you have seen like the core what of the core finance.
It looks like you're overweight these sectors are overweight technology overweight health care overweight cyclicals what do you under way out what don't and.
I will still.
Not a believer -- as the EEU earlier -- -- you talked about the US banking system isn't far better shape than European banking system they took 09 to raise capital wasn't fun but it really has helped.
My problem is where's the growth gonna come from.
Brad you know what we had years of growth in the financials on the back of rising leverage leverage is -- four letter word nothing yet quite replaced.
So I think it will just take some time too much capacity we need to reduce the capacity.
And come up with -- new earnings models let's talk.
About let's talk about Europe a little bit wanna bring up those names by the it's -- -- He -- to technology.
Specifically talking about stocks like applied materials are Nvidia I believe for some of the names of people get an idea of individual brands.
How did -- -- and technology.
And UnitedHealth and -- were some of the health health care stocks that you -- -- people get an idea of that but Europe again.
To talk about this more specifically how is one we have guess on a lot of times the question is what's the end game in Europe and what the end game better -- The Indian gaming Europe -- lot of fancy mandates.
-- if you study credit crises around the globe.
There are not answers and -- solutions He just keep buying time look what's the fundamental problem let's keep it simple.
Greece can't pay their bills right.
But the European banking system can't marked the Greek Paper market and no it's more complicated than that.
So there has to be.
And organize the -- of Greece Greece is gonna default.
But let's organize the way it happened so we can manage it as opposed to a chaotic default and I think.
Economies of the world markets of the world can live through and organize the fall -- struggle mightily if it's cap.
Looking at some of -- the idea we -- -- McConnell mentioned some of the individual stock names but looking at those health care name's united health care and Aetna.
Just to name to her up both up more than 30% year to date are you worried those have got a little bit ahead of themselves compared to some of the other -- not.
Really because earnings have come through you know if a company is delivering the goods especially.
Pretty horrific economic pattern we've been in.
I think they deserve the credit of stocks are still on expensive.
When you look at them lots of different ways people you know allies to the way you would be wrong and all of this is if we did go into recession right get your pricing in effect -- are you assuming that we won't that we will muddle through why are you convinced of that well we're giving 13 chance of recession rate to the downside markets two thirds chance not.
Unemployment claims we got a number today was a little soggy -- in the past up 20% before recession.
Bank lending nothing to write home about that April was the -- when things are slowly improving.
Our retail sales the ISM surveys give their mix they are not uniformly negative finally I'd say.
What aggravates a recession the big cyclical areas housing and autos -- already in the basement right you can't fall out the window in the basement and hurt yourself.
And so we if we have a recession I think is a very my -- one.
But I think we'll skate through with this.
One to 2% need be to plus at some point in time.
Talk about quickly that appetite for stocks -- Bob because you run so much money.
Do you think that investors will come back to the stock market and because again you look at the flows bonds bonds bonds -- and half own -- -- -- -- They'll come in as when they always command when prices are higher towards a chicken and -- sort of thing right now the only significant buyer of common stocks but the company does themselves they're buying their stocks back because they see achieved and of course financing.
About buyback is very cheap so we'll take higher prices and higher prices will only come if we skirt through without a recession.
And we build some confidence we get a little leadership the a look at the stuff you all been talking about that's so elusive but we need some most companies certainly a funny money to buy their own stocks in any justice they do thank you Bob it was a great to have this much time to talk to you I know -- to his senior person Bob value welcome back any time but thank.
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