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Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton on efforts to reform a government in the aftermath of Muammar al-Qaddafi
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While back everybody well we are joined now by ambassador -- the for my US ambassador to the UN to talk about the very latest of what's been going on in Libya this is it's very confusing of course in this.
Phase ambassador where we have.
Appears to be the toppling of the -- FE regime where is He.
And you know what he's been in -- for 42 years he's a slippery character at best -- how do you see this playing out over the next several days and weeks well.
I think the ultimate outcome is not in doubt I think that He Qaddafi regime is over but I think how it ends is still in doubt how bloody it is -- -- it is and what it may portend.
In terms of difficulties for the successor regime how hard it is to create national reconciliation.
Between the pro and anti Gadhafi forces and then the second step what is the what is the successor regime how does that fit.
The various tribes and clans and factions together I think.
The longer these hostilities continue.
The more difficult it is for the successor regime to get off to a good start hating the US fit in with the -- the reconstruction and rebuilding of that nation in the months and years to com well I think our interest.
Primarily is to make sure that Libya does not become a base for international terrorism so I think we do have an important political role try and strengthen.
Leaders in Libya who believe in basically -- pluralistic free open society who are pro west.
To try and help them gain power rather than Islamic radicals potential supporters of al-Qaeda.
Anti western leaders of which in the rebel movement there considerable number -- that's my next question how likely is that going to be huge vacuum in Libya more than any other country in the region is slowed.
Fractures with all these different tribes and having only had to -- -- -- of 42 years.
There is an opportunity for that backing to be filled with people not so.
Friendly towards the west let's exactly right and this in Libya really is regime change the Gadhafi regime is gone this is not like Egypt.
Where Mubarak is gone but where the military remains in powers has been since 9952 so.
The institutions of the state itself are disappearing in would be if you were Qaddafi policeman would you be putting your uniform on going to work today.
Probably not but that means you've got.
Law -- order to restore and and not a lot of time to do it so there's a lot of pressure I think to on the transitional government to try and I get its act together I don't think the United States to the west as a whole has done enough over the past.
Five months to try and support leaders who can bring Libya back into the civilized world and that's one reason why I think at this point we're very much risk.
Up let's look at said that potential upside though for -- to be quite self -- the United States.
On -- -- any changes in the Arab world -- what is that the Tenet what is a potential outcome that is.
Incredibly positive out it assuming that -- the rebuilding and that the new government there takes shape and not a positive one.
Well I think there is about a chance that there will be a democratic government I don't think it's impossible at that will happen I also just don't think it's inevitable and over the years for historical reasons going back a couple millennia Italy and other countries have had.
Significant influence in Libya there are.
That there is real potential there we'd like to see a stable free government to start pumping well again and open up other Libyan reserves that have not been exploited because of these decades of sanctions.
So that even though Libby is production now in terms of total world by in -- not that great.
If you knew that other reserves in Libya were open I think that would be significant and would be a model for others in the Middle East as well about the impact on the rest of.
Middle East -- it you know it Egypt is still rule by the military in this period off to Mubarak in the still.
You know concerns that there's still bit of a vacuum that.
I'm what about Syria and -- problems does this do anything does this embolden the the protesters in the anti government forces and Syria.
I don't I don't think it really will reflect much difference in this -- environment and the principal reason is that in Syria the -- audience have a huge stake and this again is unlike.
Egypt -- world Libya.
But Iran.
Has used the bath party regime in Syria to its advantage for many years locating.
Weapons of mass destruction programs there they've used serious fun all the support Hezbollah and Lebanon and other terrorist groups.
So I think the Iran into willingness shed a lot of Syrian blood to keep the Asad regime in power I think that's what we've seen already.
My guess is that the prospect is that aside does stay in power and that more innocent civilians right.
That we would com increasingly bloody in order for him to -- hang on in that country and then you have the NATO -- -- -- with with the NATO support in Libya that not likely what happened with Syria.
Note that the NATO operation in Libya was not very successful.
We we worked with the rebels unhappy with the outcome no doubt about it but -- could have achieved this five months ago -- the United States had.
That really struck a hard blow at the top of the regime I think it would fracture I think we made a mistake by not doing it think the odds of any military intervention in.
Syria or close to zero and I think the administration's reluctance is in part.
Because they still hope to deal with Iran on the nuclear weapons program I don't think that's gonna happen but I think that is has constrained their willingness to put pressure on Syria but what.
We what happened with Libya with Qaddafi giving up his and nuclear ambitions that really sends a message says.
To Iran that that's what you don't -- him who were well I negotiated that was one of the ones are negotiated the end of the Libyan nuclear weapons program I still think it was the right thing to do.
And in -- -- from current Qaddafi is now.
I didn't mean well but but but what He did that was wrong was threatened to go back international terrorism and that's what justified the military intervention so.
I think if any regime wants to give up nuclear weapons we should still deal with them.
The problem with the -- as they have no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons negotiations work to their advantage did you actually meet with capacity.
I did not but I met with a lot of people that you've heard about in the news -- most of whom have affected by now you know.
And all of that line.
Well one of moderate or call was a graduate student at Michigan State.
And had been ahead of Qaddafi is intelligence service and He still knew more about American college basketball than I did.
Very gets how long do you think ambassador will it take before we sent us a very difficult question before we see any semblance of order.
In Bolivia well I think in pieces of -- you're gonna see order now on the eastern part of the country I think the rebels and do have have it under control I think -- in other places as well I think the real issue now is gonna be in.
The parts of Libyan geography where Qaddafi is clan and tribe is those who have been very loyal to him for forty years.
And the issue there is will they fight to the bitter end or will they melt away and the fact and we just don't know the hands let what happens that -- FT whereas it.
I personally I don't think he's gonna leave I think He I think -- will stay there till the bitter end Wilson.
Ambassador John of it terrific that you as always.
-- insight you won't get from.
