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Well our next guest with his vote -- the top economic forecast for 2011 by the national association for business economics don't -- The president Naroff Economic Advisors joins us now -- more on these numbers jolt terrible numbers in terms -- new housing this morning.
We're getting close to the levels that we saw in the summer of 2009.
We clearly are in it double dip territory at least in housing as far as housing is concerned aren't -- When it comes to new home sales that's really the problem child for this economy.
The builders have to face.
All of these distressed homes as was pointed out.
And they really can't match them in terms of prices because if the homes already built if it's a distressed sound you just have to get him off the books.
They can go for any price to build rest of still pay the costs.
Of the goods in the labor so it's really really difficult form and as long as those distressed homes overhanging the market it's a problem and so we're really not surprised.
But that's not really the key housing is not going to be the driving force in this economy we just wanted to see keep going down -- So housing is not gonna be the driving poison that data recovery without housing we're gonna have to have a recovery without jobs -- everybody I've spoken to said look unemployment unemployment is going to be.
And 88 and -- to nine and a half whatever the case may be for years to come so what's gonna drive the recovery.
I don't quite agree with the where gonna have the recovery without jobs job growth may not be 30400000.
That you a month that you'd normally expect.
But I if you go back six months think about the six months ago Wu.
February march April we're getting to 250000.
Jobs a month.
Confidence was rising people are buying motor vehicles everything seemed to be turning around.
What made the difference at that point it was the high gasoline prices gasoline prices are coming down.
Hopefully the situation.
In Libya will mean as we go out the rest this year -- come down even more.
What's the consumer has global more money in their pockets they'll spend a global more it may take -- another six months against back to where we were last February.
But once the consumer starts spending again that turned everything around and businesses have the cash to spend.
You would tell you mentioned lower gas prices and that certainly is it where we are right now compared to everywhere in the probably you legal a little bit lower from here on out that'll be helpful but.
Heinz today saying look our bottom line is her because commodity prices run higher there obviously got the pass that on -- -- to -- higher cost at at at the end product or lay people off as well.
You've got to GDP number coming out Friday that's probably gonna disappoint or at least will be a must be a headline number -- bother consumers the confidence isn't there in the headlines don't really help the confidence.
When when the consumers feel confident again to start spending money.
Yeah that's the biggest problem that we face is.
Again if you look at the spring confidence was rising everything was turning around that we got hit by the gasoline that we got hit by the debt ceiling issues if all the political issues that are going on we of the we -- job growth.
You've got to turn -- it's a process when I say it may take another six months again if people feel a little bit better that they're not pumping their entire paycheck into -- gasoline tanks.
Maybe they'll start feeling a little bit better they'll spend -- little but more and that negative cycle becomes a positive cycle.
It takes some time this is not going to be a turn around that's really quick it wasn't quick.
But it's going to happen and I think we're gonna see some better growth as we move through this year nothing spectacular over the next twelve to eighteen months but nothing you don't like the recession.
Those GDP numbers on Friday by -- we will be the second revision that we get.
The other thing that we're looking -- on Friday as Ben Bernanke speaking.
The markets are anticipating have been saying some things -- probably about QE3 would be better from a pure economics standpoint if He said nothing.
Well I I think the -- simple reality is mr.
Bernanke is a historian of the depression.
He knows it was bad policy that caused recoveries to -- he's not going to let that happen he's just gonna make sure everything goes.
By Jolie appreciated as always great information Joel Naroff -- -- the next time.
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