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Office session highs liberty and John Kingston right now because stuck there -- to be you know wide range of opinion obviously with the stock market weakening.
A lot of people looking to commodities as an investment but what happens with regards to Libya element to the Brent contract.
He mentioned west Texas -- what do you think is the future for both of those markets.
Well I think in the case of Brent the that He had an interview this morning was -- -- who was the former head of the national oil corporation of Libya.
He defected around mid may He knows that industry -- as wells anybody.
And He said He thinks and about three to four months you might be able to get around three to 400000 barrels a day of Libyan oil on the market.
But He doesn't see a return to normal for at least two years so this is a long term recovery.
Three to 400000 barrels that they would be nice that market certainly needs and of course one could argue that that's about what will probably lose out of Syria.
So the the idea that I can understand -- the broad market is declining because.
Prices set at the margin it is a very sweet crude it's in that the European theater -- can -- -- more than CI.
It was very strange to look at that screen this morning and CTI up as Phil mentioned.
You know a dollar or more and -- down about two dollars that's not we've been seeing.
But there's no doubt that the gasoline price that consumer's pain in the US has been -- far more to Brent now for quite some time.
And you saw that the products today we're down -- -- was down so the the easing of the -- market.
By the Libyan crude even if it's only three to 400000 barrels a day is certainly some welcome news to consumers but.
We're we're a long way from going back to one point six million barrels a day couple years.
-- yeah I've seen anywhere from two to three years at the longest because they've got it because there's so much damage to the pipelines that were beaten back greenback and health plan and of this discussion.
And -- and that brings to the US contract in particular.
On its way you -- -- -- that's part of the pressure right now and oil prices.
Or you think we're gonna see a big jump if we get worse than expected -- -- I think you always build in some kind of -- hurricane premium and let's face it.
Probably last that we have in the last few years it's like the little boy who cried wolf you know.
A couple years -- we don't been a big you know hurricane premium because we just caved in came off some of the worst case hurricanes we've ever seen like hurricane Katrina and stuff.
Last couple years -- hurricane premium.
Is it adds much to -- now it's almost out of sight.
-- -- -- We have been very lucky this hurricane season back this is the first one -- even really have a real chance to get the US mainland so.
Right now -- you know we're kind of you know.
Live and on borrowed time but that was a lot of concerning when there was a small percentage chance that that could get into the gulf we saw the WTI react.
Now that weather forecasts this change we gotta remember the market can change a lot faster than these weather forecast to got to keep in mind that storm for a little bit longer -- I'm.
I wanted to be -- are gonna it's gonna be interesting this is this is.
We haven't had a significant hurricane hit the the gulf since I can that was I believe in 2009 since that time.
You -- this enormous buildup of inventories and at the cushion delivery point of the nymex if -- -- -- -- -- -- North -- in the oilsands.
And so what's gonna be interesting to see is if you do have a hurricane come roaring into the gulf.
It's very possible that TI will certainly react there's no doubt about it but really that's when you really have to watch the credit market because -- Brent market really has become.
The proxy for the Gulf of Mexico as well as the New York Harbor prices on the nymex so watching TI in relation to hurricanes is not necessarily going to be is indicative as watching the Brent market which I really think you've got to keep your -- Nicole you're watching all the big energy companies in the energy sector overall in that as one of the things that's actually it seems to -- keeping.
The market up.
Right now yeah we have had some names on the move and take a look at names like Chevron Exxon -- you see this oil services index.
Is to the downside the only the only good thing about this is when oil pools fact that we all pay less.
At the pump up right now I can see -- going back and forth as we were chatting it has now moved back into positive territory oil is now up.
Fourteen cents I think that that Bill Clinton was absolutely right these markets are moving fast and furious and see -- Exxon and Chevron are holding on to.
Up -- gains as far as percentage.
You know China's -- to -- just quickly got the while -- here was whether or not al-Qaeda was operative in.
The rebel forces taking hold of Libya and whether that's an issue jumbled her former US ambassador just said to us.
That He NATO's confirming their odd key al-Qaeda elements but -- got -- -- yourself.
Look these individuals need -- export they need to sell oil into the markets to keep their population sappy as says Iran as those other enemies of the United States right.
-- it's it's it's interesting that you know Libya created this sort of crazy society in which really almost nothing work except for one thing the national oil corporation.
Libya's national corporation was generally considered a very solid international.
It's national companies state owned oil companies.
And had some very good people in there and in fact I I read one argument a couple of months ago that it was really the only institution that you can almost imagine being consistent.
Whether it was run by could not -- or or run by the rebels.
So hopefully it will hold together its lost a lot of people people who defected hopefully they'll come back.
Because it is a fairly well respected institution.
You have you can't help but contrast that to Venezuela.
We've had -- vessel also was a very well respected institution and is no longer.
As they've been driven route really all the smart intelligent people that they're going to Columbia -- -- going -- the US so so let's hope that as they do try to transition over the next.
Two to three years to getting back to there their output of one point six.
That they will put put together they will put back together.
A well functioning national oil corporation and they will.
Right produce as much as they can sell right.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- And proof do you think that's the case.
I think that the benefit of all this is the speculation comes out of energy and if if they can start getting some production on even 3400000.
And people will actually have.
The confidence that oil prices can come down which some really will help.
Getting out of this global Malays that we're seeing right.
And that helps the US economy after the end of the day right absolutely wouldn't come back below a hundred.
On the brand side I think that -- consumer confidence that industrial confidence comes back and -- and -- the market Adobe nice to see you look I think solidly for the evident from the markets and of course.
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