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Former Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Robert Kaplan on the lagging economy’s impact on the markets.
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You know it's always the investors conundrum right when the market is trying to lots of -- and -- you know what would we have ways to go.
The Dow was 12% of advertisers well it's a correction territory a there are a lot of folks who say -- just look at the S&P right now.
It's trading at what twelve times earnings I mean.
That's -- below normal average 161718.
Depending on who you talk to looks like -- -- is it.
To former Goldman Sachs vice chairman Robert Kaplan Robert -- -- I think we're getting there I think this market had to correct people are realizing economies much lower than they thought there's a greater risk of a double dip.
And -- earnings estimates for coming down and price earnings multiples price earnings multiples earnings come down metals sudden the traditional man says his offer and on on yeah but it's -- I don't know.
Undervalued market and there's also an expectation that the slow growth economy could last for years.
Which is also gets into the price earnings multiples for people say -- slower growth maybe it doesn't -- -- fire multiple.
So.
You're looking at the next few days you've you've you've fishing around on any deals.
I think if the market gets in the range of 1115 to 12100.
I think you're gonna see cooler heads prevailed the weekend from -- -- and -- and the S&P at the weekend coming will help.
Because will calm people down on the survey the wreckage.
We have an importer report I believe tomorrow morning.
I've heard a thing or two about how exactly its Opel let me ask -- -- if that's awful I know.
It's the 808590000.
Jobs is expected some firms are ratcheting that down today it is really dead of -- half that what.
I think a lot of that is already taken to account the market you might be surprised even if it's bad news.
I'm not certain how much downside there is over the next few days that's -- -- -- because now there's so cynical.
They'll trade up on if there's to just -- yet the truth of the matter is could take several months to figure out where we are how -- is this would just after its.
You went on.
At Inglewood to covering the AB 87 crash one thing -- remember distinctly.
And a little bit with the 89 crash set with the sales leverage -- UAL.
Some of the other points punctuated.
97 the Asian debt crisis in 98 the Russian crisis those two in August by the way.
It eat a brave soul comes in and and starts -- you've heard the stories about Peter Lynch and 87.
Buying some stock -- idea on buying back its stock GE bond markets.
I it is yet but -- would have been busy -- has yet to hear such reports.
On should that worry.
I think this all -- a little bit too quickly and the other problem that we didn't have an 87 and 89 I actually most companies I worked with.
And talked to are there than they themselves are thinking about rethinking the outlook.
So you're really it's hard to do a big share repurchase much of more conviction about the outlook.
They'll get conviction though I think over the next month or two and my guess is you will see -- a little bit more share repurchase activity.
But the slowing economy.
There's so many.
I'd call and tail risk.
Between what's going on the United States Eastern Europe we haven't talked about the Middle East it's been sort of on the back burner rewrite -- -- it's cause it's enough to cause people know let's just watch how things unfold we don't need to be heroes here.
So in -- a very no one's -- to be hero and by default you sell because of our board at least you do go outside then we kind of bump around this.
Mid correction to bear market territory if not worse right we're only 78 percentage points from getting down to bear market territory so what.
Happens well you know -- let's say this correction from the high were -- the recent high isn't actually that great I think it's 8% by the -- 9%.
We have on the downloaded at close to twelve okay so -- talking I get sort of looked at -- middle toward the end of the day.
That the fact of the matter right it was a long -- certainly from bear market these kind of corrections.
And that may in fact this readjustment I think was needed we were little distracted last week with what was caught on Washington.
We were destined to face up to the fact the economy is slowing the date has been trickling out the CEOs know it soon is it very is it your view then Robert did there there is another recession here.
Or just it.
A slow down at a minimum and it's gonna last a while one.
I must say the answer to whether it's another recession depends a lot of what policy makers -- I think there's gonna have to be a more full integrated discussion in Washington about not just cuts but also some spending.
On programs extension of the payroll tax.
Holiday just and there may be there's these guys barely got this thing done on time well that's what it you know that's a little bit wouldn't makes people nervous people out there know the economy slow.
They hope Washington will take a more co cohesive approach not just worried about cutting but also worrying about how to grow the economy.
Yes very good -- that it's my would have budding up seeing as you'd like to come on my weekend especially -- -- -- -- network a consumer that they move the slip that and -- let -- -- actually commits to.
