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FBN's Dennis Kneale breaks down how government policy created the recession of 1937 and how market psychology is impacting consumer behavior.
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18100 well we asked folks all of you at home are we talking ourselves into another recession.
But first citi's new says -- would be the first time the tough talk from the government led to an economic downturn that's.
Yeah you know what there's a study has been making the rounds and acumen 2006 it looked at.
What it's called the mistake of 1937 now the liberal economist Paul Krugman was the first guy to make note of this and the New York Times back in June but now some up financial by some talk to bring it up.
And basically if you look at what happened is we're recover -- the Great Depression really well then suddenly.
They don't know why and these two guys -- back and looked at it.
We had the mistake of 1937 GMT it's like our GDP today fell by 9%.
-- -- production suddenly plunged 32% wholesale prices down 11% stock market loses almost half its value and what these two authors concluded in 2006 was -- the mistake of 1937 was quote and that's it up -- communication policy FDR's administration -- -- all offered confusing signals about the objectives.
Of government policy they further say that quote.
Vague and confusing signals about future policy created pessimistic expectations of future growth and price inflation in that -- and about that expected and actual.
Deflation this has got county Eckert said of the federal reserve bank of new York and Benjamin pubs probably -- to Chicago now.
Importantly Cheryl they say this is especially true what government says can screw things up even more.
In zero interest -- environment this because as soon as we start to change just a little bit in our perception that output suddenly can fall off a cliff so -- fascinating and eerily familiar given.
A lot of the negative comments that a lot of government officials have been making don't forget that Treasury Secretary Geithner came -- -- if we don't do this -- to deadline to be catastrophic.
I just think words like that.
Hurt even more in a time of zero -- -- psychology.
This is what this or what what what's become.
American psychology now that's very -- consumer behavior -- sentiment its behavior it's everything it's the entire -- -- that's coming out of Washington right now and you can see how negative it is not to mention the fact that they're actually pulling us -- you look at the president talking about back cats -- corporate jet owners and and hedge funds and what -- what it makes us as Americans still is really start pointing the finger and being cynical and actually -- -- OK somebody else has has one -- -- -- -- this kills everything you need to bring the country -- get everybody about.
And say that we're gonna grow was a nation because we're not hearing that right now at a watch.
In fact it's never been more divided -- had -- that the compromise in the debt ceiling thing.
Would be to a new kind of feel -- by got no they aren't -- beating each other worse than ever.
And then I -- that investor Michael what do you how -- parallel to now in the count was some some options for what Obama's shifting views have -- take a look at this.
-- -- -- -- -- the bush tax cuts first He wanted to eliminate them.
That -- the -- so let's keep middle hurt the economy we take and what now in this most recent beta -- -- again stimulus first He touted shovel ready projects and they actually joked.
That they weren't shovel ready his anti business bent vs -- in those banks bashing big business and then suddenly said no we need business -- -- trying to re embrace it.
But then more recently -- talking about those those private jets neverland.
He kind of -- on what most expensive private jets in the world.
Inflation deflation which is your target and the other thing this of advisors that is -- shifting.
Priorities first who's going to be health care than it was -- that it was jobs that it was debt deficit goes back to jobs that was the budget debate now expected jobs.
All of those ships are creating uncertainty it's making us feel overall theater you have a down.
And and and the CEOs and the leaders of American businesses are watching and listening to everything He says.
And it changes how they run their business habits so we CEOs -- until we you know that affects how they run business and -- airport.
