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Former Labor Department Economist Gary Burtless on whether or not the government can get the labor market back on track.
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Also lets -- -- reports out today on jobs before the payroll processing firm ADP said.
A 1141000.
Jobs were created in July private sector it's more than expected challenger gray and Christmas though showed that -- layoffs at a sixteen month high.
Now President Obama pushing for a renewed focus on employment now that we have the debt deal done something that we have heard him say many times before.
Jobs must be our number one focus in 2010.
That's why my administration remains focused.
Every single day -- pushing this economy forward all these investments.
In innovation and education.
And infrastructure.
-- make America a better place to do business.
And create jobs and making -- jobs are available.
Give the first thing I think about what I wake up in the morning is the last thing I think about when I go to -- should not a day goes by that I'm not focus on your jobs.
Your hopes and your -- and in the coming months Paul continued and also the fight.
For what the American people care most about.
New jobs higher wages and faster economic growth.
So you get the idea of the question becomes is the government -- of all talk and no action and former Labor Department economist Gary Burtless is our -- -- joins us now.
To talk a little bit more about that in.
Jobs is your focus is the president has said over the last couple of years at this point where we are given what we didn't through.
What can hear anybody else -- government really do about it.
Well the president by himself can do very little He needs the cooperation of congress.
At this stage I think.
Monetary policy can only have a very weak in fact on the economy remember short term interest rates are very very low.
They can't be driven any lower.
The Federal Reserve has some.
Influence over longer term interest rates but that's limited to so the main thing that the government can do to lift demand.
You know -- to spend money not handed out those not.
Going to happen just not going to do it and in and in and it's almost kind of as we look at the unemployment rate under President Obama and where it.
It's been still over 9% we'll see -- we get on Friday expected to stay over 9% of nine point two.
It's almost a pointless conversations and talk about whether or not we should spend money but I think it is because politically this is no will do it just not going to happen.
Right it did -- think that's fair enough so what would what does that mean.
Well that that that's right I think that.
The legislators.
And possibly the president to have thrown in the towel in terms of the -- economic policy that in the past has lifted the United States economy out of sort of an equilibrium high unemployment situation yeah where we are now and that because.
-- anyway and in the previous stimulus plan failed I mean in India or it's it's judged.
Even of it -- -- it obviously even if it added jobs on the margin it didn't live up to expectations that because that didn't work now that.
The political will do anything -- -- -- not to mention the fact that we're trillions of dollars in debt that is just it's just not there anymore.
And if that if that's the well if you have worked a little bit better maybe and maybe it would be.
Well look.
The numbers on the economy that were released last week revisions to the old statistics about the economy showed that the recession was in much deeper free -- at the time the president took office and right thought.
And they still show that they -- direction of the economy reversed direction by the following summer six months after the stimulus.
Past I don't think the stimulus was the sole reason for it but this stimulus certainly contributed.
To the change in direction of the economy that occurred six months later.
-- let me ask you about now just real quick before I let you go Gary endowed -- -- data brought this up about the odds of a recession that's what seems to be the big buzz this week.
People like Martin Feldstein of thrown out that 5050 number others like Larry Summers are apparently at one and three what odds are you putting on it.
I think the odds are somewhere around forty or 50%.
That we will have a couple of negative quarters in the next in the next year.
That's pretty high that's a and and and that's really the bottom lies to the market selloff that's what -- That's what really has a lot of people talking that more and more people like you got that gaga -- real quick.
The the congress senate and the president seemed to have taken off the table the one.
And a joke that we could do which is have moved the government boost employment directly by hiring workers and spending more money.
Today and yours and your got -- on the table that volatility is that's what we said the beginning in your in that camp that says we should spend more money.
-- say the opposite is the problem -- whatever the case 4050% high odds for another recession Gary thank you Gary Burtless for joining us today from these.
