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Now let's go to our retailers -- going back to school break it out normally late summer sales earlier than ever in the hopes of getting -- April 1 of the industry's most crucial seasons.
Which companies will pass the test and you'll end up at the bottom of their class.
-- -- -- -- capital market the markets managing director and senior regional analysts.
Joining me now and it's great to have you so let's talk about some of the winners and some -- -- -- also but the winners.
Who's gonna win from what you're seeing right now.
-- from what we're seeing right now in the malls what are the winners that we like and have lights on and Abercrombie & Fitch -- and -- They actually have been very promotional.
And continue to take -- share from competitors like an American Eagle and it Aeropostale.
That's one of the winners.
All right -- like that name they've gotten what what about -- year.
BB stores as well so that there are some your picks as well -- -- it had some missteps now.
Yes -- BV is actually not your classic back to -- that is state it's a little bit more contemporary that younger 22 to say 32 year old.
They've had a lot of ups and downs in the past call a few years.
But starting last year they did bring in a new president and at the beginning of the year a new GM and general merchandise manager we're starting to see the impact of what that -- to women.
Our -- can do at the -- level they did their first positive quarterly com.
In seventy course that's over four years.
Which really says that something's happening at the product level and we continue to like BV -- -- -- BEB.
Hey -- what about the other guys like Wal-Mart and targets of the world you know a couple of years ago when the recession this year but was going to Wal-Mart target.
Given the cool kids we're we're in close from targets and now we've seen those stock price is not do as well this year vs the ones you mentioned.
What's the outlook for that for that group.
Said in officially cover Wal-Mart -- -- -- can say is that specialty.
They are promoting so heavily at specialty that you can actually get some really good prices.
On stores that actually make quite frankly have a little more cash say when you go to school a little more desirable than some of the -- that target and Wal-Mart.
So I think what's happening is you're actually getting a a sort of trade away.
From some of the really deep disk -- To some of these retailers that have brands at a discounted so heavily that the differential the price differential is.
The 85 or ten dollars more to get an actual desirable brand as kids go back to school -- Over the last several months we talked about increasing commodity cost cotton in particular that's been a real concerned.
To us when looking at that sector can they pass that onto the consumer are they gonna take it on the chin regarding -- margins.
What is your outlook on these increased commodity costs and when that's gonna do to the bottom line -- -- retailers.
Says exactly that.
There -- say nine months lead time for most of these vertically oriented retailers -- specialty.
So we're gonna start to see these price increases coming in the back to school and -- holiday fled and it's spilling over into 2012 next year.
This is going to be I think a huge surprise to the consumer.
What you just said -- earlier on was that we're seeing massive promotions early sales -- sales throughout the month of June and then into July.
Two weeks from now three weeks from now we're gonna wake up all the sudden those prices are going to be 1015%.
Higher than they were last year the -- but hasn't gotten larger.
I don't think anybody's really talking about -- so the consumer has already budgeted for higher food higher gas.
There's no more money to be spent so when they go to back to school they're still gonna how what I believed to be fixed budget.
500 dollars 600 dollars but they're just gonna get less.
The majoring -- -- -- -- very it's a great perspective from you you're talking about -- how about that -- capital markets managing director retail analyst thank you very much.
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