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Dismal government jobs report follows yesterday's positive ADP report that actually show the private sector and added -- 157000.
Jobs last month.
So joining us to really delve into these numbers.
We have -- phone Shea is director of macro economics from Moody's analytics.
And -- I'm not even sure where to begin with this thing it is that ugly and that's scary so.
Help us figure this out because -- number what are you looking for what the number this morning.
We we were looking for about a 100000 total jobs gained in needless to say we are very disappointed when the only got eighteen and of course you know Wall Street started to ratchet up the numbers after that ADP report.
-- what do you think is closer to the market eighty Payer bail us and were we go from there.
Well I mean the BLS samples a lot broader so it covers a lot more the economy I think that's closer to the truth and we also saw a downward revisions in in.
In April and may which would indicate that the job market is that is much weaker than we thought it was even a couple of months ago.
Gas you know in the president's remarks earlier on this morning he said listen there's just frankly ups and downs that we're gonna continue to scene that we need in that this is going to be a long progress along call.
Is anything that's positive.
From this report that you're seeing today and our reasons -- not feel like we may be heading into a double debt.
Well I did the details were disappointing there's no question about that.
The average workweek declined with somebody mentioned that they a job losses -- temporary services.
However I do think that this is only temporary I there are a number of headwinds to the economy the Japanese disaster bad weather that we've had in the states.
The problems in -- up.
And the high gasoline prices which have come down so I'm hopeful that over the next few months we'll see job gains pick up again so that by the end of the year the economy is adding a 350000.
Jobs per month.
But that is well short of the 250000.
That we -- seen a healthy economy and what frankly the president needs to get -- -- you.
His guaranty -- promised levels what is mechanics hate for the economy to grow at fast fast pace.
If it's gonna take some more confident they think consumers are still anxious businesses are doing well financially profitability is very high.
But they're still anxious about what's going on so they need some certainty I think increasing.
And a deal to increase the debt limit would be a big plus for certainty.
And then we'll start to see things turn around I think once we get a few months of good job gains consumers will become a little more confident.
They'll start to open their pockets a little more that internally the stronger job growth -- -- in that into this positive self reinforcing cycle but we're not there yet.
-- you know it's one thing one economists make these positive assumptions and say well you know what this is temporary its head winds.
How dangerous is it though for the White House and do the same thing in that they'd be if they're wrong -- that could the consequences be.
Well -- I think the converse is even worse if the president goes out there and sounds pessimistic.
And I think consumers will say boy if the president's nervous than I should be Narveson and start to cut back.
But I don't think the administration has any choice but to present an air of optimism.
That that -- -- confidence because confidence does indeed feed upon itself.
Okay they can say things that but what about -- -- -- a -- a public relations aspect of them believe -- got that down fact that the White House.
But so far acting optimistic has done nothing for our economy so what should they be doing right now your mind as an economist.
To really -- a positive cycle you're looking for.
Well I think they should be talking about more stimulus -- -- the focus -- on the budget deficit but I think in the near term we need to be doing more not less.
I think spending cuts and tax increases which are the wrong idea at this point in time.
We can continue to see big job losses for state and local governments so I think a -- to help them -- that they don't need to cut as many jobs would be strong positive.
There's talk about extending the payroll tax cut for another year I think that would be a positive as well.
But I think the stimulus is a dirty word now but I think the economy needs more of it not less subject the.
-- let -- -- that's I just wanna ask you are you confident that congress is gonna reach an agreement on the on the debt ceiling.
By the -- his second deadline.
I'm actually more confident today than I was yesterday I think that.
Hopefully both sides -- look in the mirror recognize that uncertainty over this is one factor that's holding back the economy it's not the major factor but it is a contributor.
And say look it's important that we get this done that the American people are depending on this that we really do need to raise the debt limit.
So that we can go forward in -- economy can really get -- -- Ironically I'm less confident today that I was -- -- but does you've been fantastic -- was saying we really appreciate -- from Moody's.
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