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Gloomy employment report that's putting it lightly for that we bring.
Stephen Stanley chief economist with pierpont securities live from Stamford Connecticut -- great have you back on the show how everyone seemed to get this report.
So wrong had we missed the mark.
Yeah it was a very disappointing report in and not just the headline numbers but everything in the report were telling -- it was week in and as you say much weaker than I think most people expected in front of the myself.
But the reports leading up to this payrolls report the initial jobless claims is better at eighty.
Well -- yet I think there have been a number of other things that that you know give me some optimism I'm actually a little bit less worried after today that I was last month because I've seen other things that suggests economy should do better we know that.
Auto production is recovering after the problems after the Japan earthquake.
We got reports yesterday from the chain stores that consumers seem to be.
Perking up just on Q as energy prices have come off so I'm still.
Pretty optimistic about the third quarter -- -- today's report as much as anyone else but.
I have to share -- our viewers your note it was.
I think a lot of good will appreciate this you right -- -- less -- today this is what you're saying but you -- say perhaps I've lost my marbles.
They're centrally just -- -- on this -- but again I look at this important simply conclude that it is not to be taken it.
Face value so is an anomaly will be snap back next month.
Well you know my my assessment of the job market right now as we definitely have softened from you know as Peter mentioned we -- three months earlier in the year where we had very strong job growth.
And we definitely softened from there and I think we can really.
You know we can pin the blame on that to a number of things.
That have provided temporary -- -- for the economy.
I mentioned to higher gasoline prices earlier in the year -- that obviously has -- want to some degree.
In Japan in in March certainly had an impact in the spring and I think that's starting to unwind.
And the third thing is something that that you've also talked about which is the political element and you know my fear is that that's gonna become a big deal I think last year the soft patch that we went through in the middle of the year.
The the number one factor.
That cause that soft patch was uncertainty around fiscal and regulatory policy.
And it almost feels like here we go again it's not quite as bad just yet as it was last year but you know everybody's I think waiting with baited breath to see how this budget.
Situation goes in you know maybe people are just sitting on the hands for a couple months and that -- that out sure -- What are your thoughts on the Fed and its role its dual mandate price control and fostering employment Lotta talk of perhaps -- need for another stimulus at this reports it is really game changer.
Yeah I think we're far way away from that and the main reason is that the inflation environment is very different today than it was a year ago.
-- -- last year at this point the Fed was very worried about deflation.
And an even the most dovish members of the FOMC can't possibly be having that concern today.
As inflation both headline and core has accelerated pretty significantly in and -- our rights looks like it's gonna continue to do so at least some of course side.
So you know I think the -- pretty far away from that I think the other thing you have to ask is you know what do you do because we tried QE to an end at least my assessment -- it didn't really do very much rather than.
You know -- artificially -- some asset prices so.
You know I think they're kind of -- at this point.
I hope at least that they're kind of at a loss -- is.
As some of the FOMC members have noted there's plenty of liquidity in the economy the Fed is not the problem.
And you know I think the Fed would be it would be doing the wrong thing I think if they tried to get even easier at this point.
Stephen Stanley thanks so much for bringing us your economic outlook and your thoughts on the jobs report today.
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